The ‘unintended consequences’ of speaking too soon

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

View of the world

Ukraine – what you’re not told

The ‘unintended consequences’ of speaking too soon

Do people remember the adage ‘Better to keep you mouth shut and people think you’re stupid than to open it and prove them right’? In many respects this might be appropriate now with the appearance of the ‘new’ Omicron variant of covid.

The South African’s, in all good faith, made the announcement that they had found a new variant and that it had many more variants than in previous mutations. That information flew around the world and resulted in the not unexpected knee-jerk reaction from many of the world’s governments who still, now two years into the pandemic, don’t have a proper strategy to deal with it.

Once the genie was out of the bottle the South African’s made the announcement that although, yes, there are a lot of changes in the structure of this mutation but that the effects were ‘unusual and mild’. Now whether that news went out alongside the discovery of Omicron is, to some extent, academic. Panic had set it and there was no way of stopping it any time soon.

In reaction a number of governments, primarily the most, historically, stupid, i.e., those of the United Kingdom and the United States, immediately placed a travel ban on anyone coming from a huge chunk of Southern Africa. (That the South Africans were surprised at this reaction does say something about their understanding of the world.)

Both the US and the UK are those countries most in the world to put the blame on any problem on anyone else but themselves. All that is ‘good’ in the country is home grown, all that is ‘bad’ has come from outside. The fact that both countries are disasters at many levels is just ignored; poverty, inequality, racism, corruption, attempts to change governance to benefit the minority, to name just a few.

Then the World Health Organisation (WHO) weighs in by declaring it ‘a variant of interest’ when there is still little really known of the dangers. They then play the game by choosing the next letter in the Greek alphabet. All this does is justify, to those knee-jerkers, their actions.

Then, too late, the same WHO state that the appearance of this new variant just goes to show the necessity of expanding the vaccine distribution to those parts of the world who have seen the lowest vaccination rates. If they thought that by following the actions they did this would shake the rich world into more compassion they displayed an unbelievable degree of naiveté.

All they did was justify those frightened and selfish populations to extend the proportion of THEIR population who will have an extra, ‘booster’, dose of the valuable vaccines. Instead of making more vaccines available to the poorest in the world all these actions mean there are less now – and it will also cause these rich countries to hoard more and more stocks ‘just in case’ in the future.

The news in Britain now is all about ‘keeping the virus out’ – as it is also in a number of other countries. But if they were ‘following the science’ (as they keep on telling us they are) then they would know the consensus is that it is probably all over the world already, it has just not yet been identified – or perhaps, realising the likely consequences, some countries have not made the news public.

We should remember that the flu pandemic (that was much more virulent than covid) of 1918 was called Spanish Flue because it was Spain that first made it public. At the end of the First World War belligerent countries kept news of their outbreaks quiet in case it gave succour to the enemy. I’ve read one theory that it actually started in the USA and was brought over by troops when America entered the war in 1917 – but no one in that ‘land of the free’ would ever admit that. (That might count as a ‘conspiracy theory’ but I like it nonetheless.) Spain was neutral and so had nothing to lose – other than the pandemic (which almost certainly did NOT start in Spain) being named after their country.

In the present circumstances the issues that many people have been arguing for over the past months, i.e., the rich countries actually living up to their promises and providing vaccines via the Covax scheme (although that smacks too much of charity for this writer) or abolishing the patent laws that make it impossible for the poorer countries of the world (who aren’t totally ignorant of science and DO have the abilities to produce the vaccines themselves) to set up facilities for their own regions. All they lack is the recipe.

Another consequence of this fiasco of the last few days is that countries (especially the poorest) will be more reluctant to announce anything that might look unusual in relation to the pandemic and hence it will go on, and on, and ……

Perhaps some people should think before they speak.

The vaccination programme in Britain ….

All UK adults to be offered booster jab.

Does AstraZeneca’s covid vaccine give longer-lasting protection than mRNA shots?

…. and the rest of the world

It is happening around the world but no thanks to the actions of the rich countries of the world.

Why are covid cases in India decreasing, despite the low double vaccination rate?

The mutating virus – how the story evolved so far

New covid variant: UK urgently brings in travel restrictions to stop spread of ‘the worst one we’ve seen so far’.

The hunt for coronavirus variants: how the new one was found and what we know so far.

South Africa ‘punished’ for detecting new Omicron variant.

Javid defends ‘swift action’ on Omicron variant.

New covid variant: Will new measures against Omicron work?

Omicron is the new covid kid on the block: five steps to avoid, ten to take immediately.

Are new covid variants like Omicron linked to low vaccine coverage?

Travel bans aren’t the answer to stopping new covid variant Omicron.

South African doctor who raised alarm about omicron variant says symptoms are ‘unusual but mild’.

Omicron: WHO warns of ‘high infection risk’ around globe.

Omicron: why the WHO designated it a variant of concern.

Future prevention?

Could a chewing gum really reduce the spread of covid-19? Maybe – but here’s what we need to know first.

The unexpected from the pandemic

We expected people with asthma to fare worse during covid. Turns out they’ve had a break.

How have restrictions worked?

Household mixing during covid-19: our research suggests adherence to lockdowns in England declined over time.

Mask wearing wasn’t disputed in previous crises – so why is it so hotly contested today?

Poverty in Britain

Communicating about housing the UK: obstacles, openings, and emerging recommendations – a report produced by the Joseph Rowntree Foundation.

Foodbanks hand out 32 meals every minute – and it’s about to get to worse.

How poorer citizens pay the price of economic change in the UK.

Corruption in Britain

Labour calls for inquiry into Tory peer Michelle Mone over PPE contract.

‘Collateral damage’

Covid travel restrictions have created new borders for migrants who want to visit home.

Not really ‘collateral damage’ but the changes in social care being proposed are happening now due to the disastrous performance in this sector due to the Government of the Buffoon failing to understand the situation at the beginning of the pandemic. Social care cap: how the new system will work and why it’s unfair.

This might not be the best place for this article (not least because it addresses the situation in the United States) but the effect of the pandemic on medical staff has been worse due to the way the health services (in all countries of the world) have been increasing developed towards profit rather than care for the sick. If it has been happening across the Atlantic it will be happening, t a greater or lesser extent, elsewhere. Either now or at some time in the not too distant future.Why health-care workers are quitting in droves – in the United States.

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

View of the world

Ukraine – what you’re not told

Cuba’s vaccine could end up saving millions of lives

Cuba's Soberania 2 vaccine against covid-19

Cuba’s Soberania 2 vaccine against covid-19

More on Cuba

View of the world

Ukraine – what you’re not told

[This article first appeared on the Jacobin website on 22nd November 2021. This version is taken from the Portside website which published on 24th November 2021. It’s reproduced as it appeared then. While the richer countries of the ‘Global North’ seek to find more and more ways to hoard vaccines for their own, privileged populations the vast majority of people in the ‘Global South’ go unvaccinated. Campaigns for the abandoning of patent restrictions to allow even more countries to produce the various vaccines have, so far, achieved nothing. When the potential profits of ‘Big Pharma’ are at risk capitalist governments will find all kinds of spurious reasons to maintain the status quo. It is for the ‘Global South’ to help itself.]

Cuba’s vaccine could end up saving millions of lives

Thanks to its public biotech sector and its government’s deep commitment to public health, Cuba is now the only low-income country to have made its own covid vaccine, and it’s poised to help millions around the world.

Much of the press coverage of Cuba last week focused on the anti-government protests that didn’t eventuate. Less covered has been something of potentially greater global significance: its vaccination drive.

After a dire twelve months, when a too hasty reopening sent the pandemic surging, deaths peaking, and the country back into a crippling shutdown, a successful vaccination program has turned the pandemic around in the country. Cuba is now one of the few lower-income countries to have not only vaccinated a majority of its population, but the only one to have done so with a vaccine it developed on its own.

The saga suggests a path forward for the developing world as it continues struggling with the pandemic in the face of ongoing corporate-driven vaccine apartheid, and points more broadly to what’s possible when medical science is decoupled from private profit.

The Safer Gamble

According to Johns Hopkins University, as of the time of writing, Cuba has fully vaccinated 78 percent of its people, putting it ninth in the world, above wealthy countries like Denmark, China, and Australia (the United States, with a little below 60 percent of its population vaccinated, is ranked fifty-sixth). The turnaround since the vaccination campaign began in May has revived the country’s fortunes in the face of the twin shocks of the pandemic and an intensifying US blockade.

After a peak of nearly ten thousand infections and close to one hundred deaths each day, both figures have now plummeted. With 100 percent of the country having taken at least one vaccine dose by the end of last month, the country reopened its borders on November 15 to tourism, roughly a tenth of its economy, and has reopened schools. This makes Cuba an outlier among low-income countries, which have vaccinated only 2.8 percent of their combined populations. This is owed largely to vaccine hoarding by the developed world and their jealous guarding of patent monopolies, which bar poorer countries from developing generic versions of the vaccines that were produced through public funding in the first place.

Key to this outcome was Cuba’s decision to develop its own vaccines, two of which — Abdala, named for a poem penned by an independence hero, and Soberana 2, Spanish for ‘sovereign’ — were finally given official regulatory approval in July and August. In the words of Vicente Vérez Bencomo, the internationally acclaimed head of the country’s Finlay Vaccine Institute, the country was ‘betting it safe’ by waiting longer to manufacture its own vaccines. This way, it would avoid dependence on bigger allies like Russia and China while adding a new commercial export at a time of ongoing economic hardship.

These efforts are already underway. Vietnam, with only 39 percent of its population fully vaccinated, inked a deal to buy 5 million vaccine doses, with Cuba recently shipping more than 1 million of them to its communist ally, 150,000 of which were donated. Venezuela (32 percent fully vaccinated) also agreed to buy $12 million worth of the three-dose vaccine and has already started administering it, while Iran (51 percent) and Nigeria (1.6 percent) have agreed to partner with the country to develop their own home-grown vaccines. Syria (4.2 percent) has recently discussed with Cuban officials the prospect of doing the same.

The two vaccines are part of a suite of five covid vaccines Cuba is developing. That includes a vaccine delivered nasally that’s progressed to Phase II of clinical studies, one of only five vaccines in the entire world that have a nasal application, according to one of its top scientists, that could be particularly useful if proven to be safe and effective, given the virus’s entry through the nasal cavity. It also includes a booster shot specially designed to work for those already inoculated with other vaccines, and which was recently trialed on Italian tourists. Since September, Cuba’s been in the process of getting World Health Organization approval for its vaccines, which would open the door to its widespread adoption.

A Different Vaccine

Several aspects make Cuba’s vaccines unique besides their country of origin, according to Helen Yaffe, senior lecturer in economic and social history at the University of Glasgow. At the heart of it is Cuba’s decision to pursue a more traditional protein vaccine rather than the more experimental mRNA technology used for the covid vaccines we’ve become familiar with, which had been in development for decades before the onset of the pandemic led to a breakthrough.

Because of this, Cuba’s vaccine can be kept in a fridge or even at room temperature, as opposed to the subpolar temperatures the Pfizer vaccine has to be stored at or the freezer temperatures Moderna’s vaccine requires. ‘In the Global South, where huge amounts of the population have no access to electricity, it’s just another technological obstacle,’ says Yaffe.

And while the mRNA technology, which has never been used on kids before, has meant a lag between adult and child vaccination in the developed world — and means vaccines for kids under five are still being developed — Cuba aimed from the outset to create a vaccine that kids could take. As of this month, it’s fully vaccinated more than four-fifths of all kids aged two to eighteen.

While roughly two-thirds of all kids were shut out from school in Latin America and the Caribbean as of September, Cuba has now reopened its classrooms. Gloria La Riva, an activist and independent reporter who has been visiting Cuba throughout the year and has been in Havana since mid-October, described the scene at the Ciudad Escolar 26 de Julio as parents and grandparents turned out for the school’s reopening.

‘It’s a very big thing for the families,’ she says. ‘Everyone feels this enormous pride.’

The Power of Nonprofit

There’s one more factor that sets the Cuban vaccine apart. ‘The Cuban vaccine is 100 percent entirely a product of a public biotech sector,’ says Yaffe.

While in the United States and other developed countries, lifesaving medicines are developed thanks largely to public funding before their profits and distribution are ruthlessly privatized for corporate enrichment, Cuba’s biotech sector is wholly publicly owned and funded. That means Cuba has de-commodified a vital human resource — the exact opposite policy direction that we’ve seen in these last four decades of neoliberalism.

Cuba has poured billions of dollars into creating a domestic biotech industry since the 1980s, when a combination of an outbreak of dengue fever and new economic sanctions from then president Ronald Reagan forced its hand. Despite a crushing blockade by the United States, responsible for a third of the world’s pharmaceutical production, Cuba’s biotech sector has thrived: it makes nearly 70 percent of the roughly eight hundred medicines that Cubans consume and eight of the eleven vaccines in the country’s national immunization program, and it exports hundreds of millions of vaccines a year. The revenues are then reinvested into the sector.

‘All these vaccines that have a very large impact on science are very expensive vaccines, economically inaccessible to the country,’ Vérez Bencomo said recently about Cuba’s decision to develop its own vaccines.

The sector is internationally acclaimed. Cuba has won ten Gold Medals from the United Nations’ World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) for, among other things, developing the world’s first meningitis B vaccine in 1989. In 2015, Cuba became the first country to eliminate mother-to-child transmission of HIV and syphilis, a result of both the retroviral drugs it had produced and its robust public health care system.

In this way, Cuba has been able to do the unthinkable, developing its own vaccine and outdoing much of the developed world in overcoming the pandemic, despite its size and level of wealth, and despite a policy of concerted economic strangulation from a hostile government off its shores. International solidarity efforts have been vital, too. When the US blockade meant a shortage of syringes on the island, jeopardizing its vaccination campaign, solidarity groups from the United States alone sent 6 million syringes to Cuba, with the Mexican government sending eight hundred thousand more, and more than one hundred thousand on top of that coming from Cubans in China.

A Source of Hope

Even so, there is some uncertainty around Cuba’s vaccines. Their use in Venezuela has met objection from the country’s pediatric physicians unions and medical and scientific academies, on the same basis as other critics, who say the vaccine trial results haven’t been peer-reviewed and published in international scientific journals. The Pan American Health Organization has called on Cuba to make the results public.

For his part, Vérez Bencomo blames an international community hostile to Cuba. In a September interview, he charged that Cuba’s scientists were being discriminated against by major journals, who he said had a history of rejecting submissions from Cubans while later publishing similar research from other countries, and act as ‘a barrier that tends to marginalize scientific results that come from poor countries.’

These are pretty serious charges from a globally respected scientist. A winner of the Cuban National Chemistry Award and a 2005 WIPO Gold Medal, Vérez Bencomo led the team that worked with a Canadian scientist to develop the world’s first semisynthetic vaccine, creating a more affordable shot to protect against Haemophilus influenzae type B. Upon helping develop the low-cost vaccine against meningitis, he was barred in 2005 from traveling to California to accept an award for it, with the George W. Bush State Department deeming his visit ‘detrimental to the interests of the United States.’ In 2015, he was made a Knight of the Legion of Honor by France’s then minister of social affairs and health, who commended him for his work and called him a ‘friend of France.’ (Vérez Bencomo did not respond to a request for an interview).

While Cuba’s rebound from the pandemic suggests his and the Cuban government’s confidence in the vaccines isn’t misplaced, it may take some more time for them to get the international scientific community’s official imprimatur. Should it come, it would prove a powerful refutation of the corporate-driven vaccine model that has so far dominated, which holds that, in line with the talking points of Big Pharma, only profit-driven competition can produce the kind of lifesaving innovation the world is desperate for.

Perhaps more importantly, it may be a way for the developing world to finally crawl out of the pandemic-shaped hole it looks no nearer to escaping now, months after vaccines have been rolled out in wealthy countries. Western governments have continued to oppose calls from the Global South to waive vaccine patents and allow them to manufacture or buy cheaper generic versions, leaving the vast majority of the world’s people still vulnerable to the virus — and, ironically, endangering us all, should new, vaccine-resistant strains mutate in the country-sized petri dishes this unbalanced policy has created. In that sense, we should all hope that Cuba’s vaccines are proven as successful as its scientists are sure they are.

Branko Marcetic is a Jacobin staff writer and the author of Yesterday’s Man: The Case Against Joe Biden. He lives in Chicago, Illinois.

More on Cuba

View of the world

Ukraine – what you’re not told

Confronting a 21st century pandemic with 14th century tactics

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

View of the world

Ukraine – what you’re not told

Confronting a 21st century pandemic with 14th century tactics

Depending upon which ‘fact’ you believe the covid pandemic has been with us for just over or just under two years. 21st century societies, especially those in the richer countries, pride themselves on their sophistication and ability to deal with any problem that arises with the technologies that have been (and/or are in the process of being) developed through the increase in scientific knowledge, a process that really took off towards the end of the 20th century. Indeed, such claims have been made ever since the climate emergency became more widely known and accepted by the majority of scientists but not by some world leaders nor many of the companies that have played (and are still playing) a major role in causing the problem in the first place. Technology, those climate deniers say, will always come up with a solution – even if not until the eleventh hour.

However, the first time this bizarre ‘theory’ is put into practice it falls far short of the over-riding solution it is supposed to be.

Most countries put their faith in a vaccine that would protect against the outbreak and it arrived, relatively, quickly. This was due to an unbelievably huge public investment into the work of private companies (who are now reaping the benefit with their huge profits – why wasn’t something written in the agreement that in return for the public investment the vaccines would be supplied at cost?) and the knowledge base that had been established over the last couple of decades. But when the vaccine arrived it wasn’t enough.

First the vaccine was just going to be for the most ‘vulnerable’ in society but it was no surprise that those countries that had the wherewithal to secure vaccines would soon roll out the programme to include the majority of their population. Now children as young as five are being vaccinated and it would be no real surprise if babies and infants are soon to be included as well. First it was thought that two injections would be sufficient but now third ‘booster’ shots are being given to many in the rich countries and there is already talk that a regular ‘top-up’ injection might be the way forward for the next few years, at least.

This selfish grabbing of as many vaccines as possible by a few countries means that even after two years of the pandemic the vast majority of the population of the world (i.e., those in the poor South) haven’t even had a single injection. That’s bad enough but what is worse is that it doesn’t even seem to be an issue at the moment. Government’s keep their populations ‘happy’ – or at least some of them – by pumping the stuff into their arms and the calls to extend the vaccination to those who really are now the world’s ‘vulnerable’ fall on deaf ears. As with compensation due to the consequences of the climate emergency all the promises have come to nought.

The fact that we are in the middle (or even just the start) of a pandemic which, by definition, effects every corner of the globe, seems to have been forgotten as well as the fact that the longer the virus is allowed to grow and mutate in huge parts of the world the more it is likely to come back (to the North) in a form which the vaccines won’t be able to combat.

Not only has the vaccine programme in the richer countries been a display of immorality and hypocrisy it also demonstrates that nationalism and tribalism is triumphant and concern for the really poor people of the world is non-existent.

Worse still it’s not really working. There may be various reasons for this, the unvaccinated are in the firing line at the moment, but the prime reason is that no country in the world has really developed a proper strategy to deal with a disease that will likely be with us forever so has to be managed rather than defeated. The military terminology used from the start has blinded people to the reality that there is no real winner in this case.

As the days pass more countries in Europe are re-introducing various restrictions and lock downs. In Britain the Buffoon has said that’s not going to happen there but there have been so many U-turns in the last 18 months the Government resembles a child’s spinning top – so no real guarantee for the near future.

In the very first posts in this series ‘The Journal of the Plague Years 2020-2?’ the question was asked whether we, as a society in general, had learnt anything since the Black Death of the 14th century or the Great Plague of London in the 17th. Then the response was to hide away and hope for the best and, in reality, that’s all we’re doing now.

No society in the world has really taken a pro-active approach to dealing with the virus in a manner which didn’t create collateral damage which could ultimately be more expensive in the long run.

The problem is that such a strategy (which needs a whole raft of measures which include, but are not restricted to, a functioning, reliable and trustworthy testing arrangement which includes viable and effective support for those with the virus to be able to, and encouraged to, isolate for the general good) is not really viable in a capitalist society which leaves everything to the ‘free market’.

Because of that the merry-go-round of lockdown to lockdown is more than likely to continue for some time yet and the last page of this ‘Journal’ will not be published until some time yet.

 

Vaccination programme (and now a pill) in Britain …..

First pill to treat covid gets approval in UK.

Covid jabs to be compulsory for NHS staff in England from April.

Pfizer says antiviral pill 89% effective in high risk cases.

AstraZeneca to take profits from covid vaccine.

Medication holiday may boost vaccine protection.

Covid-resistant people inspire new vaccine tactic.

It’s bad enough that the richer countries are hoovering up all the available resources of vaccines – leaving the poorer countries to just manage on the crumbs – but now there are threats being made if people don’t take extra vaccinations (when at first we were told that two would be sufficient). When is this going to stop? Get a covid booster jab or risk more restrictions, warns the Buffoon.

Merck v Pfizer: here’s how the two new covid antiviral drugs work and will be used.

Care homes: why mandatory vaccination could make staff shortages worse.

Making vaccination compulsory for NHS frontline workers likely to make patients suffer.

….. and the rest of the world

This is Pfizer. What’s the catch? They’ve earned billions in the last year or so – so why this generous, esoteric approach now? Pfizer to allow developing nations to make its treatment pill.

Novavax covid vaccine is nearing approval – but what impact will it have?

How the pandemic is faring in Britain …..

Covid makes Christmas ‘problematic’, says Jonathan Van-Tam as he warns ‘darkest months’ are ahead of us.

UK bucking trend of rising covid cases in Europe.

Will this mean the return of free dental treatment for all in the UK? I don’t think so. Why having bad oral health could raise the risk of covid.

….. and throughout the world

Some of the richest capitalist countries in the world and they still can’t get it right! Even when they’ve been hoovering up unbelievably high doses of vaccine. WHO warns Europe once again at epicentre of pandemic.

Belarus: how an unpopular government is struggling to manage the covid crisis.

Austria’s lockdown for the unvaccinated: what does human rights law say? [This might now be redundant in the case of Austria but such a situation is sure to arise somewhere in the world before the end of the pandemic.]

How Peru became the country with the highest covid death rate in the world.

WHO says it is very worried about Europe surge.

‘Long covid’

Long covid: my work with sufferers reveals that western medicine has reached a crisis point.

Vulnerability to the virus

Gene commonly found in south Asian people affects covid severity.

The future treatment of the virus

Promising covid treatments could be growing under the sea.

A nation (or, perhaps, even wider afield) of hypochondriacs?

Is the common cold really much worse this year?

More on ‘covid passports/passes’

Why covid passes are not discriminatory (in the way you think they are).

‘Collateral damage’

What happened to furloughed workers after the end of the Job Retention Scheme?

The cost of covid: what happens when children don’t go to school.

Obesity among children soars after lockdown – and yet the country is bemoaning the fact that there is a ‘shortage’ of crisps!

Calling children ‘vectors’ during covid-19 is turning into discrimination.

…. or not?

Young and ethnic minority workers were hardest hit at the start of covid, but not any more.

Poverty in Britain

Hunger and the welfare state: Food insecurity among benefit claimants during covid-19. The executive summary, the Full Report and the Appendices.

England: Landlord possessions increase by 207%.

Cambs Universal Credit claimants ‘struggling to make ends meet’ after £20 cut.

Those continuing to profit from the pandemic – and often after huge public investment in research

This week Pfizer announced profits so far this year of $7.7 billion, 133% more than it made last year. And Moderna has made $7.3 billion in profit, after receiving over $10 billion of public funding for development and manufacture of its vaccine

This is a strange one

How creative industries could boost the economies of small islands crippled by covid.

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

View of the world

Ukraine – what you’re not told