Will it be Armageddon? Britain returns to school and work

Posted on 01/09/2020 by Michael

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

Will it be Armageddon? Britain returns to school and work

It’s officially the end of summer in Britain – which is normally marked by the return of schools, colleges and universities, the return to work after the summer holidays and some half decent weather after a disappointing July and August. 2020 is no different in that respect. What is different is that the country is now six months into a pandemic.

All those events happening at the beginning of September do not come as a surprise. They are scheduled years in advance and that being the case the population of Britain should have been approaching this milestone with the confidence that everything had been planned to make sure that with an increased movement of people, on a daily basis, everything was in place to mitigate any resurgence of the covid-19 virus.

But that’s forgetting we are in Britain. A country which decided that the best leaders to take us into the third decade of the 21st century should be a bunch on chinless, public school educated, self-centred, capitalist (and imperialist) orientated self-servers. At the head of this gang of no-marks is a Buffoon of the greatest order who’s ‘gift’ is to sound erudite and intelligent but when you examine his words they turn out to be as substantial as the Emperor’s new clothes.

So we enter the autumn without a Plan A – let alone a Plan B which some people are calling for.

If inaction and confusion could be excused when they were faced with an ‘unprecedented and challenging’ (words that should be banned from the English language once the virus is put in its place) event such as the pandemic there is no excuse whatsoever six months down the line.

At this time preparations should be being made for the colder weather when people would be likely to be in closer contact with strangers. Instead various interest groups will be bickering about the how, why and what of the present situation in education and the workplace.

If it doesn’t turn into Armageddon it will be a matter of luck not circumstance.

Covid rules – and our understanding of the virus

When everything that has been decided by the government of the Buffoon since the beginning of the pandemic has been ‘led by the science’ it’s slightly bemusing if the science being used is out of date when it comes to the so-called ‘2 metre rule’.

How long has the virus been in the UK? Since the 21st February it seems. Only important in hindsight but it does indicate that being able to spot something new and also the ability of receiving quick results from any tests will be crucial when the next pandemic hits.

Face coverings

The Buffoon ‘explained’ his most recent U-turn (to date) on 28th August;

‘What you’ve got is the WHO saying the face coverings should be used by over 12’s and what we’re saying is if a school is within a hot spot … then it probably does make sense, in confined areas outside the classroom, to use a face covering in the corridor and also, as they discovered in Scotland, where they have had the kids in for at least a couple of weeks now, was that it was raining outside and people were coming in and they were congregating in the corridors and the move to face coverings, they thought, was. So what we’re doing, following what the WHO have said, then if you’re in a hot spot area where there is risk of, a higher risk of transmission, then face coverings in those types of areas. But not in the classroom, because that’s clearly nonsensical, you can’t teach with face coverings and you can’t expect people to learn with facings and the most important thing is just washes.’

Katharine Birbalsingh, the founder and head mistress of the Michaela Community School in Brent, in North London;

‘You need to take into account children’s group behavior in a school before you can then say they’re safer with mask. What about the children who turn up to school with uniforms that aren’t washed, but they don’t necessarily wash themselves. They come to school, they’d be wearing reused, dirty masks. They’ll swap them, joke and wear them incorrectly, they’ll lose them.

When half of your children show up to school not wearing masks, what do you do? Do you exclude them? The girls will be in the loos, checking them to make sure they look nice. They’ll be touching their faces all the more. We need to account children’s behavior when considering whether or not masks are safer. I would actually argue that they make them less safe.’

Is the second wave coming?

Not if we follow the WHO’s (World Health Organisation) ‘Disease X’ preparedness advice – even though there are likely to be more outbreaks throughout Europe come the winter.

Sergio Brusin, principle expert at the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC), said the scenario of hospitals being overwhelmed, as they were during March and April, was unlikely to reoccur due to the experience gained in the last six months and the fact that health services throughout Europe were more prepared to face what might develop in coming months.

‘The resurgence in cases will go for quite a few months. [But] it will probably never get to the same level as the first big wave in Spring, … Although we’ve seen hospitalisations going up in some countries it is not anywhere near to the situation in March and April. The ICUs are not clogged and our health services now have much better planning and response times. So, I am optimistic we will not see the big horrible scenes we saw in March and April, but we will see a lot more cases’, he said.

Although the same day the same newspaper (The Daily Telegraph) seemed to contradict itself when reporting on the increase in the number of infections.

The search for a vaccine

The race in the search for a vaccine continues. However it’s difficult to determine if the principal aim is to save lives or the kudos of being the first (and the ability to make a lot of money – just coincidentally – in the process). In supporting the home team the UK government has increased funding for the team at Cambridge University.

What’s also interesting in this article is the use of a new name for the virus that is presently creating chaos throughout the world. The term we’ve been using, covid-19, doesn’t seem to fit in with the concepts of the scientific community and they want a name which more accurately reflects the nature of the virus. So the name to remember is SARS-CoV-2. But that can’t be so easily turned into ‘covidiot’ to blanket condemn anyone who might be critical of the rules and regulations that are being forced upon us by the Buffoon and his crew.

As an aside. As people talk about a new, more caring world after this pandemic passes by will it mean that governments worldwide will be throwing limitless amounts of money at a vaccine or other effective measures to combat malaria? That disease has been killing millions of people in the poorer parts of the planet for decades (if not centuries) but we don’t seem to be that much closer to a resolution of this killer of the poor. But then, so far (but perhaps not for much longer with the climate emergency which is seeing the spread of the malaria mosquitoes into more northerly latitudes) malaria isn’t such a killer in the richer, northern countries.

There may not (yet) exist a vaccine against covid-19 but there is (and has been for a long time now) an effective vaccine to combat flu – or perhaps there isn’t. The Buffoon and his Government have stated a number of times that they want to help mitigate any outbreak of covid by stamping down (as much as is possible) on any possible influenza outbreak. But those vaccinations may not be available until December.

Consequences and vulnerabilities of the virus

The risks to those who are classified as clinically obese has been around for a while. Another report seems to confirm that, increasing the chances of death by 48%.

On the up side women may have a stronger immune response to the virus.

It’s also been known since very soon after the outbreak that children are less likely to die from contracting the disease. Considering the time of year, with schools already re-starting or about to do so in the next few days, that the Government should bring out a report that concludes that no healthy child has died as a result of contracting the disease isn’t surprising. It was released in an effort to boost the confidence of parents to encourage them to send their children back to full time education.

However, what the Buffoon and his government don’t seem to realise is that by upping the fear factor to ‘fever pitch’ earlier in the year in an effort to get the population to abide by their restrictions in movement they have created an element of paranoia that won’t be brushed away with any report. Neither have it’s confusing statements and notorious U-turns helped in creating a situation where the population has any confidence in what the Government says.

More cases are being reported but they are not accompanied by any significant increase in deaths. Why is this?

More funding has been provided for scientists who are looking into the issue of immunity, especially in how long such immunity might last and why there’s such a variety in the severity the virus has on different individuals.

Poverty in Britain

One of the many issues highlighted in the last six months is the extent and depth of poverty in Britain, one of the top ten wealthiest countries in the world. Although not a surprise (after all poverty is a natural consequence of capitalism and will exist as long as capitalism exists) the way that poverty manifests itself has been swept away, forgotten or ignored for years. Now the poor have become more visible – to the extent that some people might be considering that the existence of food banks and homelessness is a national shame and should be addressed in the near future. I have my doubts about that unless more people start to look at the world in which we live in a different manner – and are prepared to change it. In the meantime more than 80% of those who were in a bad shape before March consider they are worse off six months later, having to sell what little they have to keep themselves afloat.

The way that poverty has been approached in Britain, ever since those in positions of power and wealth started to get a guilty conscience on seeing the poor all around them, has been to mitigate the situation without dealing with the root causes. Hence the welfare state and more recently the proliferation of food banks in all parts of the country. The problem with this approach is that it accepts that ‘the poor will always be with us’ and obstructs any activity which seeks to do away with poverty all together.

We need a change in policy from the ‘Can I have some more’ approach of Oliver, of accepting the crumbs that fall from the table to demanding the total control of the bakery.

But as the pandemic has highlighted many other aspects of poverty it is also showing up these amelioration schemes for what they are, mere shams which try to give the impression that something is being done to help some of the most vulnerable in society. In Scotland funds that could have helped many people in the last six months weren’t used because the poor weren’t told that ‘help’ was available.

The return to school is also providing an opportunity of an overpaid footballer to demonstrate he hasn’t forgotten his background, his roots. This sort of help fits in with the argument above but it also asks the question why such non-governmental approach is even needed when billions of pounds have been thrown at the business community is if money was going out of style.

Education – and the return of schools, colleges and universities

Education has dominated matters in the UK for the last month and will continue to do so for at least another month as more schools, colleges and universities attempt to restart after what should have been the summer break but has now been a period of almost six months. Knowing that this was about to happen on set dates it’s totally ‘reprehensible’ (according to various teaching trade unions) that advice on re-opening should be published just days before the majority of primary and secondary schools are due to return (and even after some have returned in a few parts of the country).

In the country with the largest land mass in the world (Russia) and the country with the largest population (China) the schools and colleges all go back at the same time. In Britain it varies not just between the constituent ‘countries’ of the island but also between neighbouring education authorities. Although quite ludicrous in normal circumstances that difference could have been used to the advantage of managing the virus as those parts of the UK with the greatest number of pupils/students could have learnt from those with smaller populations but who had returned three or four weeks ago – as was the case of Scotland.

That opportunity seems to have been wasted but here is what Devi Sridhar, Professor and Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, has to say about the Scottish experience (28th August).

In the days that see the return of children to school in the greater part of the UK a report is released showing that the gap between the rich and the poor children has grown 46% in a year. Why is there this constant reinforcement of the so-called ‘disadvantage’ of many young people from poor families instead of doing away with poverty? There’s no need (and never has been) for a report to let a society know that poverty exists. What is needed is action to end it forever.

Testing

Although lower down the page on this post it is universally accepted that the testing regime will be the lynch pin in any strategy (which still doesn’t exist in the UK) to defeat the virus. Last week Matt Hancock, the Health Secretary, became all enthusiastic about mass testing. It will be interesting if a) the government achieves its goal and b) how long it will be able to maintain the numbers.

Not only the numbers tested is important but the speed at which the results are returned. In general the time lag seems to be getting worse not better. But both Scotland and Wales think the answer is in the technology.

Speedy tests are also seen as the answer to ‘unlock travel’ in a new test being trialled at Heathrow (London) airport.

Housing

I don’t even pretend to understand the situation over evictions at the moment – other than that the ban on evictions has been extended for a few more months but without a long term solution even being discussed. A pro-tenant housing lawyer tries to fight through the ‘rules’.

Anyone who is facing eviction (or knows of someone in that situation) should contact Acorn (in England) and Living Rent (in Scotland).

Care Homes

It was in care homes where the majority of deaths occurred during this pandemic so far (that is, in the first wave – if we are to have a second). Many of the problems that were the cause of that death rate have not been resolved and it will be a hard time for both the staff and residents if matters get out of hand later in the year.

But rather than attempt to plan for the future information is being suppressed ‘to protect commercial interests’.

Life in Covid Britain

Although not as a consequence of the pandemic (but the situation wouldn’t have been helped by the cock-up on the releasing of exam results and the confusion and uncertainty about schools, colleges and universities returning at the moment) the Good Childhood report has revealed that British children (15 year-olds) have the lowest happiness levels in Europe – mainly caused by a ‘fear of failure’.

‘Collateral damage’ of the pandemic in the UK

In the background over the last few weeks has been the so-called ‘collateral damage’ caused by the emphasis of the NHS on dealing with the pandemic since March this year. Unfortunately, the more information that comes out the bleaker the situation seems to become. If the matter isn’t addressed the numbers of deaths from other causes will start to compete with the fatalities due to covid-19 – even in the country with the highest death rate per head of population in Europe.

Radio 4’s World at One looked at a case study on 26th August.

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

Britain teetering on the brink?

Posted on 25/08/2020 by Michael

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

Britain teetering on the brink?

… as children go back to school and more return to work.

As Britain comes towards the end of its fifth month of dealing with the covid-19 pandemic (forgetting, for the time being, that it should be the end of the eighth month since preparations for the pandemic should have started as soon as the news from China indicated a serious situation in development) it has already; had a peak of both infections and deaths; had more excess deaths per 100,000 than any other country in Europe; realised that the country’s health service could deal with what was feared would overwhelm it (no thanks to the governments of this country that the people have foolishly elected in the last 40 years); frightened a significant number of the ‘vulnerable’ population to stay at home for such a long time they have panic attacks at the mere thought of going over their threshold; kept millions of children and young adults from their education for a sizeable chunk of the school year and at a crucial time in a country where end of term exams can determine a future; made a pig’s ear of working out how to process children from one level to another without exam results; effectively destroyed huge chunks of the economy (why are capitalists allowed to manage capitalism, they never know what they are doing and are always on a wing and a prayer?); frightened the population in general to such an extent that their fears are now becoming irrational when it concerns the least likely to contract the infection and the least vulnerable to long term effects if they do, i.e., children and young people; created a national debt that is so big it’s impossible to imagine the number in any way that relates to everyday reality; made so many U-turns that even Janus would be confused; and still not been presented with a clear and structured strategy for the future.

Ignoring the lack of leadership provided by the Buffoon and his so-called ‘government’ and the confusion which exists in virtually all fields of life due to the inability of Ministers to give clear guidance in a timely manner (rather than publishing guidelines – and sometimes withdrawing them – within hours of their implementation) the month of August should have been a time for reflection on what had gone wrong in the past (there’s little of what has gone right) in preparation for the unknown of the future.

Instead for the last three weeks and for the next two, at least, the whole debate and emphasis of society has been on education related matters. Not that education isn’t important (both for those involved and for society in general) it’s just that all of the planning for the return of the schools, colleges and universities in August/September should have been taking place, quietly behind closed doors, involving all those concerned, in those months when so much of the society was closed down.

The enforced (and not necessarily needed full lock down) should not have meant that matters not directly related to dealing with the infection and its immediate consequences should have been put on hold. But that seems to be exactly what has happened. At least in education. I haven’t been a big fan of the education unions for some of the things they have been suggesting in the past but they have, at least, been arguing that matters had to be properly planned for the return in the autumn. They were saying that months ago but discussions on the basics are still taking place days before millions of people (staff, ancillary staff, pupils and students) go back into the classroom.

That doesn’t bode too well for when the problems of the economy come to the fore in the coming weeks. Already the predicted levels of unemployment will cause a huge amount of suffering and distress, in the overwhelming number of cases, to those who are the poorest in society and from past performance they have no reason to believe that those in control will do anything to mitigate the long term problems that will spring from such a change in the employment levels.

What does ‘following the science’ really mean?

A recent BBC Radio 4 programme took a look at how science has been used (and abused?) in the last almost five months in the covid-19 pandemic of 2020. ‘Led by the science’ (full audio of the programme) was broadcast on 11th August.

Some of the questions/points raised;

Since scientists had been predicting some such pandemic why was there no real preparation?
Why was there not, and still isn’t, any coordinated and co-operative approach between countries to tackle an issue which effects all?
The ‘fluidity’ (not having full time members, only bringing experts in when needed) is both its strength and its weakness of SAGE.
Where does accountability lie?
The limitations of science – it’s tentative and things will change and can’t provide the certainties which some crave.
Did some scientists get seduced by being placed centre stage during the first part of the pandemic?
The World Health Organisation (WHO) called for all countries to prepare for the pandemic BEFORE it arrived but most countries were merely re-active.
Testing was considered a key at the very beginning but still nowhere has a ‘world beating’ system – let alone England.
The timing of the lock down.
What is ‘lock down fatigue’ and does it really exist – scientifically.
The introduction of the lock down in England one week earlier would have saved 50% of all fatalities so far.
Did independent medical and scietific advice die – or was it killed by the ‘Cummins Affair’.
The importance of public trust.
What of the future?

Public Health England – or not

As with most matters in the current pandemic decisions are advertised well in advance, speculation is them allowed to take hold and finally the rumours are confirmed. Seems like a crazy way to do things to me but it’s become the norm and people seem to accept it as the way a modern country should be run. But as with all decisions made by the Buffoon and his government since March of this year there are many who remain bemused when the arguments are made.

This concerns the abolition of ‘failing’ Public Health England.

There are a number of concerns about this change in the structure that is integral in dealing with the pandemic. Not least is the appointment of the person who will lead the new organisation. This will be the Conservative peer (someone from the unelected House of Lords) Dido Harding who has been in charge, for the last few months, of England’s ‘world beating’ [sic] test, track and trace system.

It seems that the only ones in favour of the abolition and creation of an even bigger, centralised organisation (when many of the criticisms of PHE have revolved around the very fact of its centralisation) is the Government itself. There was a recognition that PHE might well have been flawed but that doesn’t mean you throw out the baby with the bath water.

And, as mentioned here a few weeks ago when the idea of changes was first mooted, is it wise to bring in radical changes to a major player in the fight against the virus when you are still in the middle of the battle – especially with the track record of this Tory Government in the last few months with it’s (almost) once a week U-turn? Might they change their minds about this new organisation when it proves itself not up to the mark?

Professor John Ashton, former Director of Public Health for the North West England Region;

‘You don’t deal with the problem of an over-centralised, dysfunctional organisation by erecting another over-centralised organisation which is what is being proposed.

The real problem over the last few months has been the weakness of local public health, the way in which Public Health England has centralised that.’

The ‘Cummins Affair’ – and the contempt the ‘powerful’ have for the rest

The Government hopes that it has got away with the hypocrisy of a senior advisor (read de facto leader of the country) being able to break lock down rules which are forced upon the rest of us but it seems Cummins wasn’t clever enough to cover his tracks (or he didn’t care as he knew he wouldn’t be held to account) as there are reports he might have driven a couple of hundred miles to test his eyesight on more than the one occasion.

There have been a number of cases where those in positions of power or responsibility have said one thing and done the other – Cummings isn’t the only arrogant prick. It’s not what they do that’s the real issue, for me, it’s their idea of entitlement that’s worse. Because they are who they are they don’t need to follow the rules. They make the, expect us to follow them rigidly, but play fast and loose with the same rules when it suits them. This has been repeated with so-called ‘GolfGate’ in the Republic of Ireland.

Housing, renters, evictions and homelessness

The end of the ‘eviction ban’ was due to occur this past weekend but, in yet another U-turn, the Government has decided to extend it for another month. Few people who are working in the housing sector think this is enough, especially if the time is not used to look for a more long term solution to the fractured housing system in England.

There has been a disproportionate amount of assistance given to home owners (which is presently being exploited by investors and those who have helped to cause the housing problem by speculating on property) since the lock down in March and postponing legal action does nothing to take away the anxiety that many hundreds of thousands of people live under, all coming to a head now as the furlough system that has ‘protected’ many jobs will be ending in the next few weeks.

Organised labour through the unions in England and Wales don’t seem to be taking this matter seriously – not a surprise as they haven’t really shown themselves worthy of the task of protecting peoples’ jobs. North of the border the Scottish Trade Union Congress has called upon the Scottish Government to introduce a Fair Rents Bill to help mitigate the issue. However, the sanctity of property rights is at the heart of capitalism and the solution to the housing crisis in these islands is systemic and won’t be solved by passing a toothless law – and anyway it seems to ask for support to landlords more than tenants.

As an indication of the lack of support for renters (in the private sector) in Britain it’s a disgrace that what might see some longer term introduction of measures to help those with the threat of eviction hanging over them like a Sword of Damocles is fear. A report came out suggesting that throwing thousands of people out on to the streets because they can’t pay their rents for no fault of their own might turn them into ‘super-spreaders’.

If people are faced with the threat of eviction (or know of people who might be under such a threat) they should contact Acorn (in England and Wales) or Living Rent (in Scotland).

Testing

THE tactic which is universally recognised as being key to the success of defeating covid-19 is testing. It has been since the start of the year but you wouldn’t think so in the way the issue has stumbled along in Britain (with few countries worldwide having a system which is completely up to the task).

Hospital chiefs lack confidence in UK testing strategy.

There’s no real solution in any long awaited app, even though the centralised version (trumpeted as the solution to all our problems a few months ago and produced in-house by NHSX) has been ditched in favour of the one bought off the shelf by Apple-Google.

This beggars belief. Flaws in Test and Trace online booking sends symptomatic people on 350-mile drives,

An indication of the lack of strategy when it comes to testing is the way that passengers arriving in the country (whether they be foreign visitors or returning nationals) are being treated. The forced 14 days quarantine was introduced at a time which didn’t make sense and when there were other suggestions that would be both more productive in identifying potentially infected individuals and also more likely to be adhered to by a greater number of people. Now,weeks later, Ministers ‘are due to consider a range of options’.

I don’t know why this item is really ‘news’. It should be part of the overall strategy (which Britain still lacks and will probably never have) to combat the pandemic. The monitoring of the population is to be ‘ramped up’ (a term I’m sure wasn’t really used that often pre-March 2020) to determine the spread throughout the country.

‘Failings’ of public institutions (such as the situation with the non-future of Public health England mentioned above) are broadcast far and wide. However, failings in the private sector are talked about in a much more softer voice.

The so-called ‘rapid tests’ have not be that quick in arriving. This has had a particularly adverse effect on care homes who need regular and rapid testing in order to function in any way that doesn’t place residents, staff or visitors at risk. This was highlighted on Radio Four’s You and Yours (audio of the discussion) programme on 13th August.

The Government failed in not looking after the most vulnerable in society (who are concentrated in care homes) at the beginning of the pandemic and despite promises they are still not doing so and this will only guarantee more deaths in that sector if a ‘second wave’ comes along later in the year.

Herd immunity – or how many have caught the virus

Whether this will be possible with this virus is still a matter of debate but the collecting of information about the spread of the virus in asymptomatic individuals and the chances of antibodies being able to protect them from a future infection is needed to eventually provide a definitaive answer.

Nearly 6% of people in England may have had COVID-19.

And there has been some examples where antibodies have been shown to protect people.

However, on 24th August it was reported from Hong Kong that ONE person had been reinfected by the virus four months after first contracting the disease. But, as the WHO (World Health Organisation) said, it would be foolish to jump to any conclusions based upon one case study. Isn’t it possible for people to get reinfected with other viruses or is covid-19 a unique case in this as well?

Speculation on the ‘uniqueness’, the ‘resilience’ of the virus seems geared more to create a climate of fear and to increase anxiety rather than informing the population of the facts. And then there is surprise and wonder when people have doubts of returning to something akin to normal, even the ‘new normal’.

Consequences of Covid

Covid-19 is constantly being referenced to the ‘Spanish Flu’ pandemic of 1918-19. This is even though, until the lock down in Britain in March 2020, I would suggest that the overwhelming majority of the population had no idea whatsoever of that previous pandemic. It wasn’t taught in schools and even during the commemorations of the end of the 1914-1918/19 World War just a matter of months ago there was no mention of the disease that killed more people than the four years of armed conflict. People in Britain would have been more aware of the Black Death of 1347-51 or the Great Plague of London of 1665 than what occurred just over a century ago.

But I digress. The Spanish Flu pandemic was the last recognised disease to effect all of the planet (this is not taking into account the pandemic of capitalism which has killed and maimed by a factor of hundreds many more people than any natural disease) with only 10 small pacific islands being free of any infection whatsoever. But it was much more pathogenic than covid and although scientific progress and improvements in technology in the last hundred years should have meant the world was more able to deal with such an event we have seen that capitalism is incapable of preventing such incidents and really has little or no concern in the damage it can do, to both the well being of the people or the economy. After all, to date capitalism has (or at least parts of it) come out of any crisis stronger than it went in. What tends to result in such situations is the concentration of wealth and power in fewer and fewer hands and there’s no reason to assume the same won’t happen in 2020 – unless the people worldwide are prepared to get off their knees and change society fundamentally.

In place of preparing to deal with such pandemics capitalism has created situations throughout the world where it’s very policies pursued in the last 40 years or so have meant that countries and their populations were less able than they should have been to confront the disease. This involves all aspects of life such as working and living conditions, general health levels, diet, the environment and social welfare. That’s in a ‘prosperous’ country such as Britain, the situation is obviously even more dire for the vast majority of the planet’s population.

So the list of the vulnerable (and some quirky consequences) gets added to week by week.

Wales’ dementia sufferers’ death rate ‘horrifying’.

Hair loss emerges as latest long-term Covid-19 symptom.

Risk five times higher for young vapers.

Covid-19 could cause Type One diabetes in children.

Deaths of hundreds of front line NHS and care workers to be investigated.

Blood cancer patients at higher risk of dying from coronavirus.

Coronavirus could travel five metres through air.

This one, at first glance, appears quite serious (and it should be studied to make sure it doesn’t happen in any future second wave’) but it is considered a positive as, being in hospital, cases were picked up quickly and this led to more positive outcomes. One in eight hospital cases were ‘caught on-site’.

Winter resurgence of Covid-19 predicted.

Coronavirus patients still suffering from complications three months later.

Coronavirus may stick to young people ‘like a tornado with a long tail’.

UK’s cheap food could fuel Covid-19 spread.

Exposure to air pollution may increase risk of Covid death.

New Zealand investigating freight as possible source of Covid-19 outbreak.

Covid-19 can survive on frozen meat and fish for up to three weeks.

And, finally in this section, a new take on class war;

‘The plans are preventing affluent people polluting working class communities’

Problems of lock downs badly planned and/or executed

Why didn’t the Government wait a couple of days? UK ministers were warned local lock downs could fuel racial tensions.

The end of the rule of law? Risk of vigilante attacks rising as victims wait for justice.

Privacy – and control of data

Open Rights Group says there is ‘something rotten at the heart of the ICO (Information Commissioner’s Office)’ for not acting on the government’s ‘unlawful behaviour’.

‘Over in two years’?

Coronavirus pandemic could be over within two years.

… or with us forever?

Coronavirus will be with us forever.

Face coverings

This issue will only get even messier now that there is conflicting ‘advice’ about older school children wearing masks in certain circumstances in schools. But the issue is also out in the community.

Face masks deter supermarket shoppers.

Whitley Bay mask-exempt woman urges ‘more understanding’.

Man knocked unconscious after row over face masks at London train station.

You may not be able to use your mobile phone. Face masks give facial recognition software an identity crisis.

Children aged 12 and over should wear masks, says the World Health Organisation.

Scottish high schools to introduce new face covering rules.

But it’s a different situation in England. [At the time of posting the Buffoon was sticking to his guns about not making face coverings mandatory in English schools. He said he would ‘follow the medical advice’. You won’t get very good odds on there not being a U-turn on this issue in the next 24 hours.]

With all the fuss about face coverings those questions and potential negative consequences of their use have been forgotten or ignored in recent weeks.

Professor Russell Viner, a member of SAGE, on BBC2’s Newsnight, 24th August;

‘The evidence on masks is very unclear. And, actually, I think that’s in one sense, potentially going beyond the evidence we have. There are lots of concerns about mask wearing for children, particularly younger children. Because they touch their face, they are constantly worried about the mask, it actually could, potentially. spread the virus more’.

Haven’t any of these experts observed how the majority of people, of all ages and in all circumstances, deal with the wearing of face coverings? The doubts expressed in Viner’s last sentence above apply equally in the community at large. And, in reality, if these doubts are valid isn’t it even more problematic to have extensive face coverings mandatory in the wider community than in the enclosed environment of a school? In a school there are hand washing facilities and hand sanitizer will be everywhere available. But not in the outside world.

Sweden continues to follow a different strategy.

Digital ‘Passports’

The issue of digital ‘passports’ resurfaces.

Social care

This should be a surprise to no one. Social care at breaking point in England.

Recovering from the economic impact

Some parts of the country could find it harder to recover, once the pandemic is over.

Miracle cures

Arrested for following Trump’s lead.

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

From bad to worse – August 2020 in Pandemic Britain

Posted on 11/08/2020 by Michael

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

From bad to worse – August 2020 in Pandemic Britain

England Number One in Europe – when it comes to the number of dead. Scotland Third. The economy in the worst state of all the so-called G7 countries. Test, track and trace still not reaching enough people, results not coming out quick enough, huge percentage of contacts not being reached. Care homes (and those cared for in the community) still being marginalised, not getting regular testing – and storing up a problem for the future. Unemployment almost certainly going to rocket when support schemes (which were probably not the best long term solution – but made headlines and gave the impression the Government was doing something) come to a gradual end in the next couple of months. School children, who couldn’t take their exams due to the (not necessarily necessary) lock down and closure of schools at the end of March, are being badly served and let down by a system that seems unfair to lay people let alone education professionals.

The only good news is that summer has finally arrived – after a disappointing and cool start. However it’s still too hot for some of the British.

The vast majority of the population of the world should be pleased they’re not trapped within the boundaries of the island – yet thousands are risking their lives to come to the place that was one of the causes of all their ills in the first place.

Covid-19 hasn’t caused all these problems, it’s just torn down the facade.

England Number One in Europe – when it comes to death – Scotland Third

Now official, England Number One when it comes to excess deaths.

David Spiegelhalter, Professor of Statistics at Cambridge University, Radio 4, World at One, July 30th;

Q. When you look at the statistics from the Office of National Statistics (ONS) what stands out to you?

‘I should first say that the Buffoon went on to quote me that we shouldn’t be making these league tables. But I think the time has come with this gripping analysis.

They look at data up to the end of May, using Eurostat data and, quite correctly, they look at the excess number of deaths. They completely ignore what any country labels as a covid death (because we know that varies so enormously) and they adjust for the different age patterns.

The data is very well presented, they’ve got an interactive map showing how the virus spreads across Europe and it’s really chilling to look at. You can see these strong hotspots in northern Italy and central Spain bursting out early. But then it erupts fairly evenly across the UK and my understanding this was the result of hundreds, maybe thousands, of ‘seeds’ being planted, individual outbreaks happening after people came back from holiday in Spain and Italy.’

Q. What do these statistics tell us that we didn’t know before ?

‘It does reinforce what we knew before but some areas had a massive impact. Bergamo had more than eight times the normal number of deaths and to have those sorts of huge local impacts reinforcement is very strong. …

In the UK it happened quite late, it happened very evenly across the country and it’s gone on and on, much longer than other places. It peaked very highly and then came down quite rapidly. The proper analysis they’ve done allows us to see we are top of the league table.

There’s Belgium which, if you look at a normal league table of covid deaths per million, Belgium is top but because Belgium has been quite generous in labelling someone as covid, then they drop right down to about half of that.’

Q. What about those at the bottom of the league table? Arguably we should be learning lessons from them?

‘Yes. Back in April I did say that we should be comparing, instead of arguing who’s top and who’s second which, in fact, now we can do, we should be looking at the country at the very bottom.

It’s interesting that Germany doesn’t feature in this analysis at all – which is unfortunate. The way that Germany’s statistics are calculated makes it much more difficult to do the calculations.

We can look at countries which are back to ‘no excess’ over the five years, France and other places, and that’s really valuable to see. But it is difficult to go straight to a conclusion about why this is the case and I would be very cautious ascribing differences, to particular interventions and when they occurred.’

Q. The difficulty for the UK was that there were so many points across the country where it was ‘seeded’.

‘I think the uniformed spread which was different from anywhere else in Europe just illustrates that very strongly indeed. We travel a lot as a nation. Sweden has done very badly and people might say that’s because they had a very relaxed lock down but it’s also been suggested that huge numbers of Swedes go on skiing holidays whereas Norwegians stay at home to go on holiday. So the similarity had very large numbers of people coming back from areas where the virus was spreading and ‘seeding’ it around Sweden.’

Devi Lalita Sridhar, Professor and Chair of Global Public Health at the University of Edinburgh, Radio 4, World at One, 30th July;

Q. What went wrong?

‘The decision to lock down incredibly late (I think a lock down in early March would have saved many lives) as well as abandoning testing and tracing on the 12th March. If the Government felt on 12th March that capacity had been reached for testing and tracing then that would have been the appropriate time to go into lock down and build up the appropriate public health infrastriuture and use the lock down time to do that.

I think that period of days when the virus was spread throughout the community is probably one of the reasons that it was very hard to undo that and the longer we had to spend in lock down to try to bring it under control.’

Q. Is there another factor in treatment that effected the UK?

‘Yes. I think there are a few issues there. First, that the NHS became the covid health service. So people stayed away from the NHS who had other issues, for example, heart issues, respiratory issues that are non-covid related but were interpreted necessary to protect the NHS, stay away from the NHS.

The second thing, and this is what South Korea and Germany have pointed to for their low fatality rate for covid cases is that if you were tested positive and, let’s say, had mild symptoms, you would be monitored by the health system and brought into hospital at quite an early stage of your disease.

I think in other places, Italy as well as Britain, people were only admitted at quite a late stage in the disease, often when they had multiple organ failure and that’s why, at one point in the outbreak, it’s been estimated a third of people dying were being admitted to hospital with covid because they were only being admitted at such a late stage and people were only getting tested if they were quite severely ill unlike in other settings people were being tested when they only had mild symptoms or having more of the classic covid-19 coughs and fevers.’

Q. Do you think that as the figures show that deaths at present are lower than the average that eventually Britain will drop down the league table?

‘With the fall in the death rate I think we will see that across the world in places that have health care capacity because, first of all, we have better therapies, so we have a drug that is known to save people. Added to that doctors have gotten better at clinically treating this and understand more when to put people on ventilators, when to use drugs, when to use blood therapies and also people are being admitted to hospital at an early stage so we might see hospitalisations staying flat but that reflects more people being admitted to hospital with milder symptoms and so it shouldn’t only be interpreted as a bad sign. It’s flattening off because people are being brought in at an earlier stage and that’s quite a positive trend.’

Q. Does that mean we should change the way we think of the disease and the risk we associate with it?

The thing I’ve been trying to convey to young people is that it still is like gambling with your health. There is this emerging class of people called ‘long haulers’, ‘long tailed’ covids, aged 30 to 59 on average, who are generally healthy, who develop covid who aren’t necessarily hospitalised, they might just be unwell at home, but develop lasting issues which might be chronic fatigue or heart problems, whether it’s issues with lung scarring, it effects their quality of life and it’s not really clear how long it will last. Will it last for a few months on may continue for years? Is it becoming something almost like an anti-immune reaction your body has to this virus and that we’ll have to find medical ways of controlling this into the future. The message is clear. This is not like a flu which you get and recover. You don’t know when you get the virus how your body will react and how long you might be ill with it.

The message to the Government is that you do not wanting anyone getting infected with this and we should be pushing infections right down instead of thinking we can infect certain sections of society safely.’

Q. So the idea of ‘herd immunity’ is a bad one?

‘Herd immunity is fine if you don’t mind a lot of illness and death. And also if you think some kind of immunity is coming.’

Q. What is different from the way Scotland has handled the disease from England?

‘They were aligned in the crucial moments in March in terms of lock down and in terms of abandonment of testing and tracing but since April you saw a convergence.

The first convergence was in strategy where the Scottish government published a framework saying there was no acceptable level of infection and the push was towards zeros, the zero covid approach. This then set the stage for local testing and tracing so actually giving the responsibility to local NHS Boards to build up their capacity so they could go after their infections.

Scotland was lucky to go into lock down slightly earlier and our epidemic curve, compared to England, has also held it longer. In England you said to ‘stay alert’, in Scotland ‘stay at home’ and the highest risk situations like pubs and bars, hospitality weren’t opened up until cases were in single digits and actually testing and tracing was robust enough to be able to investigate clusters and bring them under control.’

Q. All four nations have today extended self isolation from 7 to 10 days. The WHO has long recommended this. Has the UK been slow in following some of the advice?

‘Yes. From the start other places have had a 14 day quarantine because of how long you can be infectious with the virus and the WHO showed a minimum period has been 10 days. I am happy we are moving towards that but I think the next stage is trying to use your testing to release people early from quarantine. Currently if you are in contact with someone with the virus you have to isolate for 14 days. I think that’s quite a long stretch so if you’re able to test people say on day 5 and then on day 8 and you have two negative tests could they be be released early? Is that enough assurance? I hope the debate will go in that direction so we can start to use our testing capacity to find better ways through.’

Q. What stands out to you in today’s ONS report?

‘Firstly, that all countries should not be competing who’s the worst, we should only be competing of who’s the best, how we’ve learnt from them, what had been done correctly, what have they been done badly and how we can improve on that.

There’s been the idea of who’s the worst in Europe. I think that’s the wrong debate. How do we become one of the best in the world? And how, for example, the UK can lead Europe and not have a second wave, we try to be pro-active and trying to lead. We can take on a leadership role in clinical research and how that can be accompanied by strong public health measures to contain the virus.’

One of the reasons for the high death toll might have been due to the fact that the UK did not take any action on the matter of quarantining people coming into the country – either British citizens or not – soon enough.

‘Herd immunity’

Raj Bhopal, Emeritus Professor of Public Health, Edinburgh University, on the issue of ‘herd immunity’, 2nd August;

‘I’m not sure actually why we are asking them [young people] to undergo local lock downs, with severe restrictions, on their life styles, rather than doing it for older people like myself who are at higher risk.

My view is we should be allowing young people to be getting on with their lives and their careers while we make special effort to look after the older people.’

How does the pandemic look in the UK?

John Edmunds, Professor of Infectious Disease Modelling, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, 17th July;

‘If we go back to working more normally and the schools will open in September, they have to, then we will effectively link up households and an infection in one household can much more easily jump into another household and from there to another household and so on. That’s how the virus spreads. …

If what you mean by normality is what we used to do up until the middle of March this year, which was go to work normally, go on holiday without any restrictions, meet friends, shake hands, hug each other and so on, that’s a long way off. We won’t be able to do that until we are immune to the virus.’

Arooj Shah, Deputy Leader Oldham Council, Radio 4, World at One, 29th July, addressing the rise in the number of infections in the town;

Q. Why do you think we have seen this increase?

‘We are testing more, so that could be one of the reasons. The fact we can’t hide from in Oldham is that we do have areas of high deprivation, we do have people who are in high risk employment, such as taxi drivers, barbers, hairdressers and they will be in contact with people. We do have areas where people live in poverty. All these social economic factors make people vulnerable to the virus.’

Q. The rise in infections – can you link it to younger people?

‘We certainly see in recent findings that we have had a lot of younger people between 20 and 40 who have contracted the virus.’

Q. So whilst they may not be suffering from it may be spreading it?

‘Yes, definitely. This is why we’re saying limit the people that you do see outside of your household, maintain social distancing, wear your masks, wash your hands, do not embrace each other, son’t shake hands.

We understand with the younger generation it’s been difficult for them, they’ve not been able to see friends from school, college, university and their having to be locked down has had an impact on their mental well being, which is something we are so alive to. …

Q. Is it possible to make some sense from the different communities in Oldham?

‘We’re a diverse community and we take great pride in that. I don’t think this is an issue around ethnicity, or anything specific like that. I do think it has a lot to do with social economic and health inequalities that need addressing.

That is a concern for me and that’s where we are focussed because we have to understand and address the inequalities we have in towns like Oldham.’

Q. You think it’s making a link to poverty that’s driving this?

‘I, right now, think it’s absolutely linked to poverty and there’s no denying that.

A significant number testing positive from our South Asian communities is a fact but we know this community are more likely to work in high risk occupations, live in larger households with multi-generational occupation as well.’

Q. And the reasons for the larger households is down to poverty?

‘Yes, absolutely, and density in our housing stock.’

Q. So what is the answer?

‘It’s just addressing and focussing on health inequalities but we have been encouraging testing and the more testing we do the more positive cases we are going to see but what we don’t yet have is access to the data on those who test negative which means it’s harder to identify where more cases are linked to increased testing and more importantly it’s harder to identify areas where people are not accessing testing or where the virus might still be circulating.’

Q. Does somebody have access to the negative tests so you could know, as a percentage, therefore you would know if it is down to increased testing?

‘Well government may do but we don’t have access to that data and it’s really important because the focus has been so much on the disproportionate impact on BAME communities and actually I want the focus to be on health inequalities as that’s the issue, but we can’t outright say that there’s a significant issue just with BAME communities because we don’t have access to the negative testing. If we did we would be able to present a clearer picture.’

Another example of muddled thinking – put as always put down to ‘following the science’ the self isolation period was extended.

Time, lack of clear leadership has meant the UK has passed through the ‘honeymoon period’ and fraying tempers are leading to a fracturing of solidarity.

However often the Buffoon repeats the phrases such as ‘world beating’ there are still many scientists who don’t believe it. Are we ready to prevent or deal with the hypothetical ‘second wave’? Not according to the British Medical Association.

The hypothetical ‘second wave’ could target the young, so says one scientist, attempting to draw conclusions from the 1918-19 Spanish Flu pandemic. As with many of the ‘predictions’ that came out, are coming out and will come out before all this is over often the aim seems to just frighten people to get them to do what the State wants. One of the problems is that there is never a look back at what some scientists predicted to see how valid their original arguments were. Do these statements help or hinder the battle against covid? What they all have in common, however, is that there is an assumption is that the virus is in charge and there seems to be an increasing divide between those scientists who only react when things happen and those who argue for a rational and considered pro-active approach – an approach that should more reflect the 21st century than the fear and ignorance approach of the 14th and 17th centuries in Britain.

Public trust in the Government in Britain continues to suffer from the ‘Cummings effect’ – although it has produced fertile ground for comedians.

And, for the potential future, experts have warned of patient misery and pain if there were to be another ending of normal NHS care in the event of a ‘second wave’.

Is the Buffoon really contrite?

Not really. Still pushes criticisms of his Government’s policies, U-turns and total chaos on to the shoulders of the scientific community – ‘following the science’. Still no real strategy. Still not taking responsibility for anything, e.g., high death rate, poor test, track and trace, confusion over face coverings, lack or reassurance over the return of schools, etc. Hoping any ‘review’ will be so far in the future he can weather any storm (which is probably correct).

Personal Protective Equipment (PPE)

Five months in and this issue still far from being resolved. And ‘fully prepared’ for a ‘second wave’?

The ‘eugenic’ virus

Over 70, dementia, diabetes, respiratory problem and now obesity. This is the list, which gets longer as time goes by, of those who are most at risk from serious complications if eve infected by covid-19.

So what’s the best way to end obesity (which we must remember has been a developing issue in Britain for more than a decade and which, in certain parts of the world – the Americas, but north and south standing out – has reached pandemic levels)? Give people money to do up their old bikes and GPs (General Practitioners) prescribing bikes on the NHS. When money could have prevented many of the issues effecting society at the moment it wasn’t available – for all the crass ‘reasons’ we became tired of hearing – yet, all of a sudden, and to give the impression that the incompetent Government of the Buffoon is doing ‘something’, billions of pounds are just conjured out of thin air. I’ll be making an appointment to see my GP, a £1,000 bike would make a pleasant summer gift.

And being too tall can also increase your susceptibility.

Mandatory wearing of face coverings

I can foresee a number of incidents around the mandatory wearing of face coverings increasing over the next few weeks. Frightened people causing grief for others and leading to potential conflicts. As a consequence of the incompetence of the Buffoon and his Government in dealing with the pandemic there will a development of ‘mob rule’ where the ignorant, arrogant and officious will consider they have the right to police the regulations.

Such people are myopic and will jump to conclusions and show their general intolerance, such was the case on a train in Merseyside on the 16th July. With the mandatory use being extended to cover more indoor locations these cases will become more and more bizarre.

Although in California, USA, incidents where frightened people ‘take the law into their own hands’ will certainly be repeated in Britain in coming weeks. Here a woman uses mace on couple for not wearing masks in a park.

Supermarket workers facing torrent of ‘mask rage’.

Paul Gerrard, Campaigns and Public Affairs Director, Co-op supermarket chain, on the increase in the number of assaults (verbal and physical) on staff, Radio 4, World at One, 28th July;

Q. What do you think is going on?

‘What’s happened there are more flashpoints now. What we’ve seen over the last 14 weeks is people under greater pressure and there’s more flashpoints.

Last week people were being asked to queue because there were too many people in the store and that resulted in abuse. I’ve seen people being reminded of social distancing and the one way system around stores and that results in foul abuse.

Last Monday, as one example, a customer didn’t want to wait, there were too many people in the store, he barged in, took milk and ended up seriously assaulting a female colleague. …’

Q. Are you suggesting that the mandatory use of masks is turning out to be another flashpoint?

‘I think it is, yes. There are certainly examples where our collegues are gently reminding people in a queue to put a mask on and that’s resulted in abuse, security guards have said it and other members of staff have said it.’

Q. What do you advise your staff to say to somebody who comes into a store without a face masks?

‘We make sure that all our customers have all the information they need. There’s information outside, there’s signage inside. … What we’ve told out staff is do not challenge people for not wearing a mask because you don’t know how it will end up.. Our priority is always to keep our colleagues safe.

It’s our responsibility to make sure customers know what they are supposed to do, it’s the customers responsibility to follow the law, it’s the police’s responsibility to enforce the law.’

Melinda Mills, Nuffield Professor and Director, Leverhulme Centre for Demographic Science, University of Oxford, Radio 4, World at One, 28th July;

Q. What would you advise shop staff who are in the situation of facing assaults by customers over not using face coverings?

‘It’s distressing to hear that that’s happening, and it’s happening to other front line workers. We have to reflect on why it is happening in the first place. It sounded like they were trying to diffuse the situation as much as possible and had prepared their information, signage and other stuff. I think it comes down to the fact that the guidance on face coverings was published less than 12 hours before the new rules came into force and its the inconsistencies that the public are getting confused about. For example, for shop workers it is strongly recommended that they wear them but it’s not mandatory. It’s not mandatory, but optional, in things like hairdressers, cinemas and concert halls. And that’s, frankly, confusing to the public.

I’m not justifying why they’re having this reaction but you can possibly understand it because of all the confusion.’

Q. The Government hasn’t been clear enough?

‘Yes. I think from Day One it’s been very slow to react but also not being clear about face coverings.

On June 5th the World Health Organisation (WHO) recommended to governments across the world to recommend that the general public wear face coverings in closed and crowded places.

This is really late that this has happened but it’s also been very unclear, it just drifts out, slow information. If you think about a country like Japan. They had the 3C’s – avoid close faces, crowded places and close contact settings and then you can understand across multiple settings.’

Q. To be fair to the Government the WHO hasn’t been clear on this.

‘Yes, that’s a good point. The WHO actually did a U-turn. At the beginning of April that for healthy individuals they don’t have to wear face coverings and then they changed their opinion. And the governments across the UK are also differing, so it’s all very problematic.’

Q. Is part of the answer to provide them free, part to do a public health campaign as had been done with the likes of condoms in the past?

‘We’ll have to learn form countries that have already figured it out from SARS and previous pandemics. The key is that people have to understand why they’re wearing them – so it’s the behavioural factors.

Protection is not 100% [to the wearer] but it protects others around them. People have to understand the risks but also that they are wearing them for altruistic reasons, to protect those around them.

In countries that have universal take-up and wearing they are not introducing fines and they’re not calling the police. The public understands why they are wearing them and, I think, we have to back up the education in that way.’

Q. At the moment it’s the public that’s ‘policing’ this rather than the authorities.

‘Yes, it’s creating real flashpoints.. The question is should we be having to police this so much, should we be allowing misinformation about face coverings and masks to be propagated. There are some real issue here and we just have to support those shop owners and also support the public in understanding why they are doing this.

There’s been a lot of abuse, also to myself and other scientists working on this as well as to the shop workers. So we just have to be really clear and say this is a public health issue. This isn’t about rights, just like washing your hands, it’s a public health issue.’

One of (the very few) advantages of the use of face coverings – it scuppers the State’s efforts to control people’s movements by facial recognition technology.

Although normally a supporter of crowds and the ‘mob’ it can have it’s negative effects. With face coverings it’s the frightened who control the agenda.

On 8th August the face covering use was expanded – more than likely not for the last time.

People who need extra care in their own homes or care homes

The lack of a testing regime for ‘extra care’ staff who visit vulnerable people in their own homes.

Radio 4, You and Yours, 30th July;

Representative of ‘extra care’ home provider.

‘All our staff are making sure that they are social distancing, they’ve been wearing the appropriate and correct PPE from the start but if we could get everybody tested because of the difficulties of not knowing if somebody’s got the virus if they are asymptomatic it would just make sure that our staff weren’t walking around unintentionally passing on the virus if they do have it. So I can’t understand why ‘extra care’ locations have been excluded from the mass testing’

Spokesperson for MENCAP.

‘At MENCAP we absolutely agree with that principal. We support over 5,000 people with a learning disability across England, Wales and Northern Ireland, most of those people live in supported living settings not care homes.

So we’re really calling upon the Government to act to make sure that everyone is protected for testing and has access to the rolling programme.’

Care homes and those who work caring for people in their own homes continue to be ignored. The lessons of where the greatest number of deaths have occurred so far, and the reasons for it, have not been learnt with ministers being accused of ‘negligence’ when it comes to the matter of regular testing. How long will this situation be allowed to continue? These matters were being discussed way back in April – but still no resolution.

One of the knock on effects effects will be to possibly delay regular visits to care homes.

How families cope – or don’t – during the covid pandemic

One in three parents ‘out of their depth’ as children struggle with pandemic fallout.

Housing and homelessness following covid-19

Housing is one of the areas which demonstrate how much on the edge to which many in British society have been reduced, primarily as a consequence of the more than a decade of ‘austerity’ imposed (and with little or no opposition) upon the country following the self-created financial crisis of 2008.

Unemployment has been rising since the lock down and is predicted to go through the roof once the present system of the Government paying a high proportion of the wage bill for millions come to an end in a month or so. One of the results of this increasing unemployment will be the inability to pay the high rents demanded in the private sector. Shelter, the homeless charity, in Scotland have predicted a steep rise in homelessness but there’s no reason to doubt the problem won’t be any different in the rest of the United kingdom, almost certainly worse in England.

Not only is the change in stamp duty helping those who use homes as a speculative investment (and therefore pushing up prices in general) it has not been revealed that it is region specific as well, having its biggest ‘effect’ in London.

Easing of planning restrictions

The Tories have been attacking regulatory bodies for decades, especially following the dismal time of Thatcher in the 1980s. Under the guise of assisting the ‘recovery’ from the consequences of the lock down they have already indicated that restrictions on developers with be relaxed.

Brian Berry, Chief Executive, Federation of Master Builders, on the sector calling for ‘reform’ for years, 2nd August;

‘We do have a housing crisis in this country. We should be building about 300,000 homes a year, we’re not doing that, just 200,000. So anything that speeds up the planning process to increase the supply of housing is welcome now but we particularly want to get more local house builders involved.’

Short comment, big propaganda.

Local Government Association, 2nd August;

‘When the process has been sidelined in the past, allowing office space to be converted into residential buildings, for example, too often the result is sub-standard housing. … It’s not the planning process holding up new build but developers sitting on land since more than a million homes have been given planning permission in the past decade but haven’t been built.’

Other professionals and experts predicted such ‘reforms’ would create a ‘generation of slums’.

And the changes could also have the effect of killing off affordable housing.

Who will suffer from the fall out of the pandemic?

There’s barely a section of society that will come out of this pandemic – and the way it has been handled by the Government. A recent report (‘The experience of people approaching later life in lock down’) highlights the problems faced by those over 50 during the lock down. A further report (‘Back on Track’) looks at issues related to employment.

Medical collateral damage of covid-19

It’s been recognised for some time that devoting all of the resources of the NHS to dealing with the covid pandemic has created ‘collateral damage’. Slowly, as time goes by and the averages of previous years can be compared, the covid deaths become only a part of the the main story.

Immunity

Another day, another report about immunity – or not – to covid-19. If there’s no immunity, if a vaccine won’t be the ‘magic bullet’ then a new way of living has to be developed. Lock downs, evacuations or quarantine won’t resolve the collapse of societies – even if it means that more people die. Even at present rates of deaths worldwide from covid-19 the ‘collateral damage’ – in various areas, be they other diseases having lower survival rates, the increased problems associated with poverty (in developed countries but more so in the countries of the geographic south) and the general collapse of support infrastructures – is starting to approach or even overtake that number. And the consequences of this ‘collateral damage’ will have a greater effect upon the young who are, generally, less seriously effected by covid-19.

At some time society has to make that decision. It would be better sooner rather than later.

The blame game

The Buffoon talks about an inquiry at some indeterminate time in the future but the blame game is already starting. In the sights of the Tories at this time is Public Health England. This also shows the hypocrisy that has been played out from the beginning when it comes to ‘following the science’.

Going back to school

But not with a pint.

Graham Medley, Professor of infectious disease modelling, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, and on official SAGE suggested that pubs might have to close when schools return in September.

He’s got an ally in Calum Semple, Professor of child health and outbreak medicine, University of Liverpool, 1st August;

‘Come October I think some hard decisions will have to be made about what restrictions will need to be re-introduced and whether that’s, potentially, the pubs and the hospitality sector are taking a hit in preference to education. It will be a political decision.’

But it’s not unanimous in the scientific community. Allyson Pollock, a doctor and consultant in public health medicine and the Director of the Institute of Health and Society, Newcastle University argues for a more pro-active approach – rather than just push the panic button if things go awry, 1st August;

‘We need to be much more confident that the Government is playing its part and has a coherent testing strategy, which it doesn’t have, that the test results are interpretable and that they’re putting in the necessary public health and primary care measures.

Then we would not need to see these ‘trade-offs’, as they are called. It’s a diversion and we’re in danger of going down a rabbit warren here.’

The role of trade unions in general has been pathetic from the very beginning of the pandemic. Instead of being the organised (social democratic) voice of the workers they have shown themselves to be merely sheep – reacting (sometimes) to events, decisions but never taking the lead. The teachers unions have been some of the most vocal – but each time they say something I find myself speechless and open-mouthed. Now they’re calling for all returning secondary (11 and over) school children to be made to wear masks. One school, Holmes Chapel comprehensive in Cheshire, has already told parents that masks will be part of the school’s required uniform.

Where’s the science? Or is it just another manifestation of paranoia?

Camille London Miyo, President, Leicester National Education Union, 2nd August;

‘We understand how critical it is for our young people to get back into school. What we need is the importance of clarity and consistent messaging that we need in terms of the guidance in order for us to do the best that we can.’

There are various views developing about the return of children to school (August in Scotland, September in the rest of the UK) but there does seem to be agreement that a properly functioning ad efficient testing and tracing system is the key to success.

An effective system of testing and tracing would also give students and parents the confidence to support a full return.

The rich not happy – another result for covid

You may be struggling to feed your family; facing the fear of eviction as you can’t pay the rent; been made unemployed or facing the threat of redundancy; surviving by using food banks; afraid to turn on the tele or the radio in case there’s something else to worry about – but the rich are not as happy as the poor a Cambridge study has found.

It has been said that many people have been struggling to find things to do in lock down (which just goes to show the paucity of their lives before anyone had ever heard of covid-19) but do we really need people to spend time and effort (and money) on such useless reports?

Vietnam evacuation

This one I don’t understand. Vietnam had a very quick and severe lock down. We were then told that was the reason why the infection and death rate was so low. After a relaxation of movement restrictions three people were tested positive in Danang a few days ago and as a result 80,000 domestic tourists are being evacuated.

Why? Isn’t this the antithesis of a lock down? Why send so many people in such a tight time frame all over the country? Wouldn’t it have been better to deal with them in Danang (even institute a lock down there) rather than spread the risk?

The Swedish ‘Experiment’

It’s necessary to look at how matters developed in Sweden as it was one of the few countries that didn’t follow the rest and introduce a forced lock down – but isn’t it too soon to decide whether it worked or not? Surely that shouldn’t happen until we are way down the line, after any potential ‘second wave’ and when ‘spikes’ are more generally understood?

Repatriation at the beginning of the lock down

It’s all well and good coming out with reports saying that the Government failed Britons abroad, who wanted to get back home, way back in March but shouldn’t this all be part of a proper review that looks at the failure of the Government in it’s dealing over the pandemic not on its individual aspects but as a systemic problem caused by capitalism and austerity.

Contact testing and tracing

‘World beating’ according to the Buffoon. The saga of testing always introduces something new.

The app is dead, long live the app – in a few weeks (perhaps).

Test results still not coming back quickly enough, in Wales for certain but no faith the situation elsewhere in the UK is any better.

Some good news? There’s a ‘new kid in town’.

But it’s still ‘jobs for the boys’.

The capacity goes up, and then it goes down again. This time having yet another adverse effect upon care home residents and staff from whom these tests were taken. How can these tests be ‘dangerous’? And who is going to pay for the disaster, both financially and on the responsibility level?

From the very beginning local health authorities have been arguing that a national based test, track and trace system wouldn’t work unless there was a significant use of, and investment in, a local back up arrangement to catch those not easy to trace cases. In yet another U-turn (although not, so far, referred to as such) the Buffoon’s Government is pulling back on the national numbers and placing responsibility on local areas. But will the funding be there?

As more information leaks out it is becoming known that not only was the national system ineffective (reaching few people) there was no real organisation and many of those employed – with great fanfare a couple of months ago – have just been sitting at a computer with nothing to do but watch films. Why a surprise? That was reported on this blog way back in June.

Poverty in Britain

A huge increase in the number of children receiving free school meals might be considered a ‘good thing’ but hardly fits in to the idea of a prosperous society. Just the opposite. With the rich getting richer (even continuing to do so during the pandemic) such changes in policy only go to highlight how it’s the poor that are paying for the concentration of wealth in fewer and fewer hands.

It’s almost certain that the real – and most long lasting – economic effects of the pandemic are still ahead of us. Unemployment is certainly about to sour and the brunt of this will be borne by the poorest in society and predictions are that this will all have a serious impact upon the nutrition of many children.

Another report (‘Poverty and Covid-19’) looks at how people have been effected in the last five months and their prospects for the future.

Tourism, quarantine and the consequences

Marcello Ricci, United Nations World Tourism Organisation, Radio 4, World at One, 28th July, on the decision of the UK Government to impose a 14 day quarantine on anyone arriving in Britain from Spain;

Q. What do you think of this decision of the UK Government?

‘The World Health Organisation recognises that government’s have a duty to put the health of their citizens first. Nobody disputes that. One of the true lessons of all of the situation, the criss that we are going through, and it transcends tourism, and it’s really about co-ordination.

How do we face literally uncharted territory and we’re not sure that going it alone is really the way to do it. It undermines confidence and this is critical when it comes to a sector, a service sector and probably the people sector par excellance, which is tourism.

Trust is a precious commodity … going it alone undermines it and this will not just effect tourism but the new reality we will have to deal with.’

Q. Isn’t every country going it alone, they are only doing it in different ways?

‘Yes, but because they are doing it doesn’t mean it is the right way. What we need is a convergence, in terms of protocols, measures of testing, tracing … and then decide how we do it in a co-ordinated manner. Isolation and building up walls we know don’t work, not for pandemics or other avenues.’

Q. Do we know that testing and tracing works? It’s isolation, it’s quarantine, they are the only things we know absolutely will work.

‘If we go back to the Spanish Flu of 1918 it was isolation, wearing masks and really wait until something happens, This is, of course, the orthodox way. We should be in a position, it may be politically idealistic, but when the greater good is really identified to better co-ordinate.

It is an illusion to, maybe, aim for total security and lack of risk. That wasn’t the case before covid-19 hit us with its full strength. It’s certainly not the reality now. We live with uncertainty, we crave concrete and specific answers nobody is really in a position to provide. Definitely not if we go it alone.’

Q. What would your answer be?

‘Testing out, testing in. Of course we want to return as healthy as we left. The proper social behaviour and then the understanding that we’re not facing a static situation. There was not tracing, for instance, at least not at the levels we are witnessing now, back in March. We have moved on, we have learnt. I mean the learning curve has been steep for everybody, government, institutions, civil society and citizens at large. We have to trust there is a common interest in moving on and adapting to the new reality. But certainly pulling down the blinds and locking the doors and locking ourselves in is not the way.’

Q. There is a huge number of travellers going between Britain and Spain, Surely it’s reasonable to take action to prevent the disease ‘re-seeding’ itself here?

‘Nobody disputes that really. The discussion goes along the economic ripple effects and the huge toll that this is taking on the sector. Tourism is far more than just having a good time. The valuation of tourism is the biggest one we have in the economy. … We’ve visited these destinations, we’ve been to the Canaries and the Balearics. The one size fits all policy is easy, it’s a good headline but it doesn’t really pay tribute to the diverse reality we are facing.’

Q. Do you think the UK will face repercussions because of this policy?

‘I don’t have a crystal ball, I wish I had. There has been some talk around this. But I’m not sure that retaliation on this level is a wise way to go. It’s a dialogue we need to follow. And weighing up the political costs and all it involves, and also to really adapt and change your decisions. We still haven’t finally learnt how the virus works, we don’t have a vaccine, but still we’re demanding the precise answers on tracing. It has to be a gradual approach, we need to go this way.’

The economic effects of the pandemic on the tourist industry was highlighted in a report by the United Nations World Tourism Organisation three months ago.

And on a local, UK level, unemployment is already starting to show the skewed effect on those parts of the country dependent upon tourism compared to other areas.

Incompetence leads to more wealth in private hands

Private hospitals to benefit from the backlog of operations and treatments caused by the emphasis on covid-19 to the exclusion of all else.

And the Tories look after their own when it comes to the awarding of contracts. How many more are there we are not aware of?

But there’s nothing for the ‘heroes’ of April, May and June.

Another example of incompetence was the report of 50 million face masks not being adequate for use in medical circumstances. These masks were part of a £252 million contract.

More information is coming out following a case brought by The Good Law Project which indicates nepotism (if not corruption) in government and a whole catalogue of ‘extraordinary waste [and] basic incompetence’. This could get interesting.

Quote of the week

On 30th July, the very same day the Office of National Statistics published a report that showed death rates in England were higher than anywhere else in Europe the Buffoon confidently declared;

‘This country has had a massive success now in reducing the numbers of those tragic deaths, and we’ve got it at the moment under some measure of control.’

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?