Britain at an hiatus – the calm before the storm?

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Britain at an hiatus – the calm before the storm?

I wonder if people in Britain in past epidemics were sitting around speculating if the epidemic was actually over or whether it was just the calm before the storm.

In the past most people wouldn’t have had a clue about what was happening in the rest of the world and so wouldn’t have known, for example, that the Black Death that swept across Europe from 1346-53 was already ‘burning’ itself out in the first countries it hit before England was affected. That burst was over in about 18 months in Britain. The so-called ‘Spanish’ Flu pandemic of 1917-8 lasted no more than two years – although when it did hit it was much more virulent than covid-19 – at least so far.

So perhaps people didn’t really have time to think in the past. Now we have too much time to think. Globalisation (capitalism’s solution to all ills) has meant that a virus doesn’t arrive in one wave it can arrive time and time again. Social media and fast communication in general mean that news, good or bad, real or ‘fake’, can arrive at the opposite side of the world in an instant. Scientists who are looking for their ’15 minutes of fame’ make prognostications about what will be the consequence of different policy decisions and if they are correct we never hear the end of it, if they are wrong then they slink into the corner until the next opportunity arises.

And as there are as many approaches to a pandemic (that effects every country in the world) as there are countries in the world then there’s always the chance that something totally unforeseen might arise out of a policy decision thousands of miles away which might have ‘unintended consequences’.

To deal with a pandemic a worldwide strategy was needed, is needed, but there were barely any formulated strategies in any country before, during and since the virus landed across the respective borders.

In Britain at the beginning of August (18 months since the virus arrived on the island) things are looking ‘quiet’.

England lost the European Cup but it didn’t lead to the end of the world as we know it. Restrictions were released (or perhaps not, in certain circumstances) a couple of weeks ago and the predicted explosion in infections, hospitalisations and deaths has not (yet) occurred.

In place of expanding massively efforts to vaccinate the majority of the world where the percentage levels of those vaccinated are in single figures the big debate in Britain is about what should be the age of the children where the vaccination programme will end – even though it has long been accepted that they are the least vulnerable to the virus (or at least to any serious infection). Now the debate has changed – we need to vaccinate the children to protect the rest of the population in Britain. We seem to be dealing with an epidemic and not a pandemic, ignoring the billions of people who could be infected in the future and thus see the appearance of more virulent forms of the virus.

The ‘doom-sayers’ in Britain have not been proven correct. The same people are ‘predicting’ serious outbreaks come the autumn and winter so whether they will be believed is in question.

By our selfish, Euro-centric, northern hemisphere, racist approach to the rest of the world we might end up proving them correct after all – but not for the reasons they are arguing at the moment.

Vaccination programme in Britain ….

UK children about to turn 18 could be first in covid vaccine queue. Prof Devi Sridhar, chair of global public health at Edinburgh University, says she would be “baffled” if the UK opted not to vaccinate British teenagers.

Vaccines for covid are much more effective than for flu – and reminding people could drive down hesitancy.

New covid-19 vaccine warnings don’t mean it’s unsafe – they mean the system to report side effects is working.

What is a breakthrough infection? 6 questions answered about catching covid-19 after vaccination.

If I’ve already had covid, do I need a vaccine? And how does the immune system respond?

Covid vaccine set to be offered to 16 and 17-year-olds. When billions of people, worldwide, much more vulnerable, haven’t as mush as had a look in. Why? Narrow-minded, parochial parliamentary politics (playing to the lowest common denominator); stupidity and fear (created by the Buffoon and his Government); Eurocentrism (even though there’s talk of the whole world being in the battle against the virus); and pure selfishness.

….. and in the rest of the world

CoronaVac vaccine: its results are patchy, but the world can’t ignore its usefulness.

Russia’s Sputnik V covid vaccine is safe and very effective but questions about the data remain.

Stalled Russian vaccines cause global anger. How much of this is just a political game? Promises of hundreds of millions of vaccines for the poorer countries of the world haven’t really been forthcoming following the hype surrounding the G7 meeting in Cornwall in June.

The ever changing virus

The beta variant is surging in mainland Europe – should the UK be worried?

‘The war has changed’: Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) paper warns Delta variant is far more transmissible.

Scientists warn of risks in easing UK controls for vaccinated arrivals.

‘Herd immunity’

Something that comes and goes in the news.

Is covid-19 on the run in the UK?

‘Freedom Day’?

Why ‘freedom day’ is the latest example of covid propaganda.

‘Freedom day’? Removing covid-19 restrictions will vastly reduce the freedoms of some.

July 19: Three experts share their thoughts on the end of covid restrictions in England.

The trajectory of the pandemic

Why covid cases are now falling in the UK – and what could happen next.

UK can expect thousands of covid deaths every year, warn scientists.

Poverty in Britain

How will universal credit cut hit struggling families? The DWP doesn’t know.

Wearing masks – or not

Should you ditch your mask once restrictions are lifted? A philosopher’s view.

Masks: how and when to ask someone to wear one – without getting into a fight.

‘Long covid’

With one in three patients back in hospital after three months, where are the treatments?

Symptoms experienced during infection may predict lasting illness.

Why Scotland needs to fund long covid rehabilitation now.

Study finds long-term covid symptoms rare in school-age children. Yet the vaccine programme in Britain is to include more of the young people in the country.

‘The Buffoon and the Pandemic’.

Dominic Cummings tells BBC Johnson denied covid would overwhelm NHS.

Following the data?

Covid data is complex and changeable – expecting the public to heed it as restrictions ease is optimistic.

Vaccine ‘passports’

Vaccine passports: what businesses need to know – and why they should have more say.

France’s covid health pass raises serious ethical questions.

‘Collateral damage’

Covid has caused ‘hidden pandemic of orphanhood’.

Media must rise above pitting scientists against each other – dealing with the pandemic requires nuance.

Britain faces ‘decades of financial risk’ as £370 billion pandemic bill mounts.

Poor mental health leaves pupils three times less likely to pass five GCSEs.

RSV: what is it, and why are child cases surging in the wake of covid?

Lack of government covid plan for English schools ‘unforgivable’.

NHS drops from first to fourth among rich countries’ healthcare systems. Not strictly ‘collateral damage’. The pandemic just made a bad situation worse.

Covid disrupted treatment for 30% of NHS cancer patients.

Who’s making it big from the pandemic?

Coronavirus business loans: some directors may have defrauded billions from UK taxpayers.

Regulator imposes £100 million fine over ‘6,000%’ price gouging hit to NHS. Two points to be made here. A £100 million fine is chicken feed for these pharmaceutical companies. And no mention of the profits some of them will be making in the next few years from covid vaccines – most of which were developed with public finance and/or based on previous public funded research.

Cheapest test kits for travellers on UK government site unavailable.

As Delta spreads, Pfizer and Moderna get set for a booster shot to profits.

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England on the eve of ‘Freedom Day’

More on covid pandemic 2020-2?

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Ukraine – what you’re not told

England on the eve of ‘Freedom Day’

In less than an hour Britain (or at least the English part of it) will enter a watershed moment for 00.00 on Monday 19th July 2021 will see the end of all restrictions under which the country has been living for the last 16 months. Or it won’t. (It also should be the end of this Journal of the Plague Years 2020-202? – but it won’t.)

(There are even nightclubs waiting to open up, with queues forming, as I write, to enter on the stroke of midnight.)

Legal restrictions will be lifted but that doesn’t mean that local restrictions won’t remain in place. For example, masks will not be obligatory on some forms of public transport but will be on others and it varies between different parts of the country (England) and matters won’t be changing on the 19th in the other constituent nations of the so-called ‘United Kingdom’. And worse still some areas seem to be following a ‘wait and see’ approach before making a final decision.

The uncertainty and confusion that has beset the whole approach to dealing with the pandemic is now being carried over into the ‘new normal’. Having had no strategy to deal with the consequences of the covid virus since March 2020 the government of the Buffoon is basically giving up and hoping for the best – more or less what they have been doing since the pandemic hit.

When it comes to the science people can get proof of their approach whatever it might be. Some scientists are predicting the end of civilisation as we know it, others are arguing the ‘if not now, when’ approach. No doubt all will eventually be proved correct, at least in their own eyes.

From the beginning we have been arguing here that there must be a better way of dealing with a pandemic than following the tactics that were adopted 700 years ago during the time of the ‘Black Death’ (bubonic plague) that swept through Europe. But that would require a strategy which has been sorely lacking. At the same time it cannot be denied that the ‘collateral damage’ caused by the lack of a clear and carefully thought out strategy has been, is and will be in the near to long-term future, immense.

Modern societies just can’t close down with the hope the virus will run its course and eventually disappear. If that thought did exist at the beginning of 2020 the hope has all but been dispelled by the general argument now that ‘we will have to live to learn with the virus and that it will be with us (probably) forever’.

However important it might be for British society to get back to normal (with all its problems of inequality, racism and poverty) it would have been useful if lessons of mistakes made in the last 18 months had been learnt so the country was more prepared for what is to come – an uncertain future for sure.

But in England (and it’s not really any better in the rest of the UK) that’s not the case.

On the very eve of ‘Freedom Day’ the Buffoon makes even yet another U-turn (this time one of the quickest ever, timed at less than three hours) over the matter of self isolation of himself and his spendthrift neighbour. But it wasn’t just the changing of approach to self isolation (‘one law for us and one law for them’) it was the way it was explained away.

In the same way that the Buffoon has lied and blustered his way through events of the last year and a bit he turned his lack of strategy on to the population of England. His video speech explaining the change in approach consisted in mainly saying that we all have to be follow a sensible lifestyle in the coming weeks and months and ignoring the chaos that his own actions (and that of the rich and powerful) in the last 18 months has just created confusion in the minds of some, incredulity in those of others, and downright antagonism in the minds of the rest.

We didn’t enter the pandemic all together and we’re not moving out of it (however temporary it might be) as a united force that would be the only hope, if not a guarantee, of success.

From tomorrow the debate will change, accusations will be liberally thrown around and politicians will be seeking to score points for their own short-term ends. ‘I told you so’ will become the most oft quote phrase and chaos will reign.

How well or badly we in Britain will get through this crisis is still in the balance. But the same question that was posed at the beginning of 2020 is still valid so many months later. The ruling class in Britain (and the rest of the world) have shown themselves incapable of dealing with such a crisis – apart from filling the banks accounts of their cronies and allies with public wealth.

Are working people willing and able to do better?

Vaccination programme in Britain

Covid-19 vaccine boosters: is a third dose really needed?

Most covid deaths in England now are in the vaccinated – here’s why that shouldn’t alarm you.

Can ‘viral shedding’ after the covid vaccine infect others? That’s a big ‘no’.

Pressure builds on ministers to reach a decision on covid vaccines for children. This decision will be based upon politics and will have nothing to do with science – or the ‘data’. There is in Britain – as in virtually all the wealthier countries – no real concern for situation in the poorer countries where many millions of the ‘most vulnerable’ are still from being protected. The Buffoon will be playing to the selfish gallery.

Freedom Day … or perhaps not

End to Covid rules for England ‘leaves 3.8 million vulnerable people feeling abandoned’.

UK faces a difficult summer.

Confusion continues to reign

UK government under fire for mixed remote work messaging.

The ever-changing virus

Lambda variant is now in 29 countries, but what evidence do we have that it’s more dangerous?

Consequences of the virus

Younger adults still at risk of serious organ damage.

Long covid has more than 200 symptoms.

The argument over masks

Seven reasons mask wearing in the west was unnecessarily delayed.

Who gains from pandemics (and in any other health care situation)?

UK drug companies fined £260 million for inflating prices for National Health Service.

Test and trace

More than half a million people in England pinged by NHS test and trace app in a week, the highest figure recorded.

Wealth distribution in Britain

The Resolution Foundation produced a report, (Wealth) gap year: The impact of the coronavirus crisis on UK household wealth and there was a discussion around the findings of this report in a webinar on 12th July.

The masters of the U-turn

Buffoon and chancellor to self-isolate in U-turn. This one in less than three hours.

Vaccine ‘passports’

Are covid-19 vaccine passports fair?

Poverty in Britain

More than 1million children from key worker families living in poverty, says Trades Union Congress. So when are the unions going to do something about it?

The Joseph Rowntree Trust has published another report into poverty in Britain entitled A Minimum Income Standard for the United Kingdom in 2021. Also just the findings.

The expiry of the Universal Credit uplift: impacts and policy options, from the Institute for Fiscal Studies.

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The future of the country in the feet of a football team

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The future of the country in the feet of a football team

If there was one word that could be used to describe the manner in which the present covid pandemic has been managed in the UK then that word would be ‘surreal’. (I have been more closely following the situation in Britain but from what I know about other parts of the world the epithet would not be misplaced elsewhere.)

Perhaps, at the very beginning, there was an excuse for this impression. But only a small ‘perhaps’. Previous governments, of whatever political colour, had given the impression they were planning for any such eventuality (be it medical, natural or even military) but when it came it seemed – in Britain, at least – that they had been planning for the wrong type of pandemic. The cunning covid virus had snuck under the radar and it should have been a variety of flu.

That was a weak argument as there must be certain constants that exist in a pandemic; testing; isolation plans; a properly functioning, resourced and financed health service; support for those who are infected but can’t work; a well thought out strategy; an idea of worst case scenarios; a long term perspective as a modern city based society has little to fall back on compared to when pandemics (much more virulent and destructive in terms of human life) struck in past centuries – failure to do so could quite well lead to a situation where the cure can become more destructive and longer lasting than the disease itself.

But none of that was there, nothing concrete and thought through existed from the start and the situation is not that much better now.

Following the ‘data and not dates’ has meant that prior to long publicised ‘crunch’ times speculation is rife, with the Government no doubt promoting leaks to see how they are picked up by the media and the population in general. Lacking any strategy, lacking any real ideas, lacking any courage they seek to place (in whatever manner) the responsibility upon the the people themselves.

Whilst claiming ‘leadership’ the Buffoon and his acolytes have bounced around like a ball in a squash court with no one knowing where the ball will land. U-turns have been made on virtually all important decisions (when they are proven to be totally out of tune with reality or because they realise the plans just aren’t workable) and getting close to any sort of strategy is just a pipe-dream.

The period where speculation is rife before the making of a decision on the way forward gets extended from one week to two, the resultant ‘debate’ almost certainly causing more confusion the longer it goes on. But one thing is certain, whatever the consequences of changes in the present circumstances (which must happen, at some time in the future, a modern society can’t go on as it has in the UK for the last 18 months or so), if it all goes tits up it won’t be the Buffoon or the politicians that are at fault.

The Tories have tried (probably not very successfully) to claim credit for the success in the vaccination programme in the country. They were hypocritical in their ‘celebration’ of the 73rd anniversary of the establishment of the National Health Service which took place on 5th July. A party that had fought against its establishment in the first place, has been trying to undermine it ever since and which is, at present, pushing through changes that will further weaken its ability to provide what it promised to do in the immediate post-war years looks even more shallow when they are forced to attend such celebrations.

Now the Buffoon has become the country’s most avid football supporter and the Euro Cup Final that’s taking place as I type is supposed to have everyone in the country supporting ‘our’ team, an attempt at narrow minded nationalism which will help us to cope as we come out of the ‘unprecedented’ situation of the last year and a half.

If the feel good factor kicks in if England win what happens if they lose?

Vaccination programme in Britain ….

Covid vaccines: combining AstraZeneca and Pfizer may boost immunity.

Heart inflammation link to Pfizer and Moderna jabs.

….. and the rest of the world

Delta variant exposes the flaws of stop-start vaccination programmes.

Proposals to extend covid jabs to children in west would delay worldwide roll out and allow deadly variants to develop elsewhere.

South Africa’s vaccine quagmire, and what needs to be done now.

The ever changing virus

What’s the ‘Delta plus’ variant? And can it escape vaccines?

Age, sex, vaccine dose, chronic illness – insight into risk factors for severe covid is growing.

We should treat covid like norovirus – not the flu.

Moving forward …..

Chris Whitty: keeping covid restrictions will only delay wave.

Why it’s time to think differently about covid.

Living with covid: is now the right time for England to lift all restrictions?

….. or pumping up the fear

UK scientists caution that lifting of Covid rules is like building ‘variant factories’.

Covid-19: ‘For us it’s not freedom day, is it?’

Global experts urge Boris Johnson to delay ‘dangerous’ covid reopening.

England’s ‘freedom day’ to be day of fear for elderly people.

‘Collateral damage’

How missing out on nursery due to covid has affected children’s development.

A hidden covid crisis? Assessing the pandemic’s impact on young workers and their mental health. This page has a link to a recording of a webinar that looked at this issue in May.

Remote workers suffered most mental distress during pandemic.

Some things we are learning

How scientists can help tell if someone caught the virus at a nightclub.

Why we should stop testing in schools.

Poverty in Britain

How inequality explains the high impact of covid-19 in the UK.

£20 cut to benefits to impact families’ ability to put food on the table.

Universal credit £20 top up to be phased out.

The Institute for Fiscal Studies published a report entitled Living standards, poverty and inequality in the UK: 2021. On 8th July there was also a webinar where this report was introduced.

The covid death toll in poorer areas highlights long term inequalities in Britain, the conclusion of a report by the Health Foundation entitled Unequal pandemic, fairer recovery.

Chaos that follows the ‘no strategy’ strategy

Parents angry at shifting government covid messages.

Covid-19: New rules for schools in England to be set out.

Hypocrisy in Britain

For an example of the shallowness of British society, and the ease with which a sizeable section of the population can be lulled into inactivity, just look at the ‘honours’ system that operates due to the existence of an hereditary monarchy. At a time when wide ranging changes are being proposed for the National Health Service which could drastically alter (for the worse) general working conditions; when staff shortages are getting worse – not solely down to the pandemic as it arrived at a time of a staffing crisis that had been developing for years; when a derisory pay offer is being offered by the Buffoon’s government which will very likely lead to strike action and/or an even greater departure of trained staff; and still a lack of a strategy to deal with covid – which we are constantly being told will be with us for ever – what is the government’s response? The Queen gives ‘courageous’ and ‘dedicated’ NHS the George Cross as William and Kate mark its 73rd birthday

Corruption in Britain

Greensill given access to covid loans without detailed checks.

Testing

UK pupils use orange juice to fake ‘positive’ Covid test results.

Test-and-trace rules ‘wreaking havoc’ for pubs and restaurants.

After the pandemic – or at least after Britain returns to ‘normal’

Why early-years education must be prioritised in pandemic recovery plans.

The Centre for Ageing Better has produced a report on access to the internet for older people, Covid-19 and the digital divide, with suggestions how things could change in the future.

Sunak must spend extra £10 billion a year on public services because of Covid – Office for Budget Responsibility.

Lessons from the pandemic

Human behaviour: what scientists have learned about it from the pandemic.

And how did it all start?

Covid origins: Scientists weigh up evidence over virus’s origins.

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